Trump 2024 ???

[BugI02]

Obviously.



In a way they're similar. But it's not making the point you want.

This relates to what I've said elsewhere about having a model vs having a side. Recap: by "model" I mean basically your worldview. Your understanding of everything. Training your instincts really amounts to updating your model with accurate information, and training your pattern recognition.

When you have a side, your instincts apply the pattern matching to the side rather than the model. When you have a side, reasoning is used to find reasons to justify the side. And don't get me wrong. We all take sides. "Sides" is really another way of saying bias. Knowing that, we might be able to recognize when biases influence our thinking and our instincts.

I think we can recognize when we have a side instead of a model by noticing that our instincts have a different outcome depending on how favorable information is to our side. If you flip positions on a given topic depending on which side it favors, your instincts aren't based on a model, they're based on a side.

The part where I think it's a false equivalence is that sense-making in politics is different from sense-making in fighting. In what you call training your instincts, the part of that that makes your instincts accurate is understanding reality accurately. Bias would play into fighting instincts far less than political sense-making.

TL;DR:
Instincts + accurate model = accurate response.
Instincts + side = side's response.

Accurate models require accurate information and reasoned sense-making of new information to continually improve the model.

The point was (and is) there is a reason why the 'preponderance of evidence' standard exists

Take, for example, the Wuhan Institute lab leak theory of covid origin. Do you think actual proof will ever be available? In cases where one side is actively doing everything it can to obscure or eradicate the truth, requiring 'proof' just becomes an excuse to do nothing/prop up the status quo ante

 

[BugI02]

I've never claimed my biased instincts were superior to reason. You have.

If it was true by inspection you wouldn't need to sell it so hard

 

[BugI02]

We all have a “side”, our own selfish side. It is a total construct that any news source can be “fair”. I don’t even have a single news source I trust. And the monetization of news from big networks to bloggers has promoted click bait to the max.

And because you often insinuate this; I post articles I find interesting, usually to foster discussion and debate, just because I post it does not mean believe everything in it…

Otherwise known as backing and filling

 

[Shadow01]

That is why “it depends” is the correct answer. Hypothetically if Paul Ryan were to win the nomination, I’d never cast a vote for that traitor, ever. Worse than just letting a known communist win to me

this is exactly how many feel about being pushed to vote for people like young. It’s ok for you because you have weaved an acceptable reason that you believe as a reason to not vote GOP and are will to let the dems win, but god forbid we come to the same conclusion for other political offices, because we are harming our future…

 

[Twangbanger]

Seems to me you're saying Trump successfully took the fight to them for two years but Republicans couldn't figure out how to ride his coattails while simultaneously undermining his priorities and secretly (or not so secretly) despising him - and that is somehow Trump's fault?

When do we get to the part where you tell me how, with DeSantis, 'It will be different this time'

How much crypto DO you own

There is no "fault." There is only effective, and not effective. You've no doubt seen the video of the famous Judo champion in the MMA fight, who was the best judoka of his time, but simply didn't know how to defend a leg kick..the opponent simply chopped him down with leg kicks. Because all he had was instinct, and no knowledge to be able to adapt to a new reality. He watched it happen from inside his own body, chewed down from the ground up by a muay thay cockroach, with no tools to change the outcome.

That is what instinct, plus a fixed skill set, gets you.

I haven't seen any reason yet to believe DeSantis would be more effective than Trump. But (and here is the part which makes many here scream and stamp their feet): Trump lost. He could not put that election out of reach. He couldn't even win all the "red states." He is not going to adjust, and the outcome will be the same. He is Tiger Woods competing on exemptions.

Why will this time be different? Now that the liberals see the 9-11 attack coming, and have barred Trump and his box cutter from the cabin?

He was the greatest of his time. But he's been figured out. And he's still running the script he ran last time.

What is going to be different?

 

[jamil]

Seems to me you're saying Trump successfully took the fight to them for two years but Republicans couldn't figure out how to ride his coattails while simultaneously undermining his priorities and secretly (or not so secretly) despising him - and that is somehow Trump's fault?

Wow. You're saying he's saying a lot of things that are conspicuously missing from the quote. But, the highlighted is true enough standing on its own.

When do we get to the part where you tell me how, with DeSantis, 'It will be different this time'

How much crypto DO you own

I don't think anyone has ventured a prediction of how different it might be with DeSantis this time. People have given reasons why the prefer DeSantis over Trump. You keep projecting this theme. Is that what has you so upset? That people have a different preference for POTUS than you?

 

[BugI02]

this is exactly how many feel about being pushed to vote for people like young. It’s ok for you because you have weaved an acceptable reason that you believe as a reason to not vote GOP and are will to let the dems win, but god forbid we come to the same conclusion for other political offices, because we are harming our future…

This is incorrect, at least as far as it goes

If I choose to vote Trump as a third party candidate, I know exactly what the result will be - and that will not be a sudden dark horse win for a third party candidate. Like originally voting for Trump, I will be voting to burn it down and see what rises from the ashes, having concluded that there just hasn't been enough pain yet to begin to turn the ship of state. I have no illusions that either my conscience or the hem of my robe will be clean

Where I disagree with some others who want dispensation to vote third party is the idea of 'sending a message' or 'keeping you conscience clear' - these ideas are based on self delusion. There is no reason you should not know exactly what the outcome of your actions will be (putting a Democrat/Democrats in power) or realizing that you will be guilty of complicity in the outcome. That is what the metaphor of hand washing so powerfully conveys. While I certainly could be wrong about whether or what burning the system down will accomplish; I am still trying to accomplish meaningful change, not just trying to salve my conscience

 

[jamil]

What is going to be different?

That's the question I'd like to see answered. But Trumpers see this question as a statement of endorsement of DeSantis: "with DeSantis, 'It will be different this time'"

 

[jamil]

This is incorrect, at least as far as it goes

If I choose to vote Trump as a third party candidate, I know exactly what the result will be - and that will not be a sudden dark horse win for a third party candidate. Like originally voting for Trump, I will be voting to burn it down and see what rises from the ashes, having concluded that there just hasn't been enough pain yet to begin to turn the ship of state. I have no illusions that either my conscience or the hem of my robe will be clean

I don't think that's how these things work. It's not getting burnt down. It's getting transformed. And that's most likely happening regardless of who gets elected.

Where I disagree with some others who want dispensation to vote third party is the idea of 'sending a message' or 'keeping you conscience clear' - these ideas are based on self delusion. There is no reason you should not know exactly what the outcome of your actions will be (putting a Democrat/Democrats in power) or realizing that you will be guilty of complicity in the outcome. That is what the metaphor of hand washing so powerfully conveys. While I certainly could be wrong about whether or what burning the system down will accomplish; I am still trying to accomplish meaningful change, not just trying to salve my conscience

I argued on INGO in 2012 to vote for the least worst outcome. It's how I voted. I voted that way in 2016 for Trump, 2020 for Trump, and will in 2024. But in terms of salving one's conscience, that's just your instincts. You keep saying people are saying things they didn't say, or thinking about things in ways they didn't think. And you're still confident in it. So you'll never correct your model. And you'll keep being wrong.

 

[BugI02]

Wow. You're saying he's saying a lot of things that are conspicuously missing from the quote. But, the highlighted is true enough standing on its own.



I don't think anyone has ventured a prediction of how different it might be with DeSantis this time. People have given reasons why the prefer DeSantis over Trump. You keep projecting this theme. Is that what has you so upset? That people have a different preference for POTUS than you?

Nope, it is more the folks who did the bare minimum to assist Trump when he was fighting the system (grudgingly voting for him), all the while sniping from the back benches, getting all self-righteous when Trump supporters don't rush to anoint THEIR chosen one

I prefer a presidential candidate in 2024 who has had proven successes in the current NATIONAL political arena over someone who has none, who was never America First until he saw that it worked for Trump and who seems entirely too beholden to the Club for Growth. I advocate a knock down, drag out fight in the primaries over a premature attempt to coronate any particular nominee, and I enjoy seeing DeSantis partisans come down with the vapors when Ron is treated even occasionally the way they treat Don every day

 

[jamil]

The point was (and is) there is a reason why the 'preponderance of evidence' standard exists

Take, for example, the Wuhan Institute lab leak theory of covid origin. Do you think actual proof will ever be available? In cases where one side is actively doing everything it can to obscure or eradicate the truth, requiring 'proof' just becomes an excuse to do nothing/prop up the status quo ante

I have no problem at all with people saying the virus came from a lab leak. It's the most reasonable option at this point given what we know now. At this point, anyone who believes with confidence that Covid came from the wet market has no evidence to justify their confidence.

But in late January 2020, we didn't know all the things we know now, and I'd have said then, while plausible, it's too early to say with confidence.

So again, it's an issue of confidence and whether one's confidence in their belief is justified by the known facts. I am pretty sure at this point that it was a lab leak. But I have a lot of reasons now to be confident that I didn't have 3 years ago.

You keep saying that I require absolute proof before I can believe something. And that's not true at all. I require something more than faith in a side to justify my confidence in something.

 

[jamil]

Nope, it is more the folks who did the bare minimum to assist Trump when he was fighting the system (grudgingly voting for him), all the while sniping from the back benches,

What the **** did you do to assist Trump? Be fiercely loyal to him? Sniping from the back benches? LOL.

getting all self-righteous when Trump supporters don't rush to anoint THEIR chosen one

I don't have a chosen one. It's like ala-cart. You look over the offerings and just pick what you like. But, I get that you are a person who is fiercely loyal. YOU think in terms of "chosen one", but I don't. I have zero loyalty to a politician. I invite you to drop your idol, your chosen one. I don't mean dropping your support for him. I mean drop the notion that he's your chosen one.

I prefer a presidential candidate in 2024 who has had proven successes in the current NATIONAL political arena over someone who has none, who was never America First until he saw that it worked for Trump and who seems entirely too beholden to the Club for Growth.

That's fair. We all have reasons for supporting the candidates we want. You pick yours. I'll pick mine. But I'm not gonna venerate my choice and put him up on a pedistal, never to be ridiculed for failures. Throw a stone man. It's invigorating.

I advocate a knock down, drag out fight in the primaries over a premature attempt to coronate any particular nominee,

This is a false dichotomy. No one's up for coronation. That monarchy **** is for Democrats. But, a knock down drag out for a primary tends to damage the eventual winner too.

and I enjoy seeing DeSantis partisans come down with the vapors when Ron is treated even occasionally the way they treat Don every day

 

[BugI02]

I have no problem at all with people saying the virus came from a lab leak. It's the most reasonable option at this point given what we know now. At this point, anyone who believes with confidence that Covid came from the wet market has no evidence to justify their confidence.

But in late January 2020, we didn't know all the things we know now, and I'd have said then, while plausible, it's too early to say with confidence.

So again, it's an issue of confidence and whether one's confidence in their belief is justified. I am pretty sure at this point that it was a lab leak. But I have a lot of reasons now to be confident that I didn't have 3 years ago.

You keep saying that I require absolute proof before I can believe something. And that's not true at all. I require something more than faith in a side to justify my confidence in something.

What I'm saying is, by the time you come around to admitting reasons to be confident that the 2020 election was stolen, it will be to little too late. Maybe not 'absolute proof', more like asymptotically approaching 'absolute proof'

 

[manifest destiny]

confident that the 2020 election was stolen

Yes it was.

 

[jamil]

What I'm saying is, by the time you come around to admitting reasons to be confident that the 2020 election was stolen, it will be to little too late. Maybe not 'absolute proof', more like asymptotically approaching 'absolute proof'

I mean. You’re welcome to cling to that idea if it helps you cope with being wrong all the time.

There was plenty of evidence justifying my confidence that TPTB changed rules that allowed ballot harvesting to be effective. Things like mail-in voting. Instant registration. Extending deadlines to ensure enough time to harvest enough ballots. THAT was how Trump lost. Not Kraken.

And I told you then that's how he lost. But you guys were so into your Kraken that you used your usual false dichotomy to say if we don't believe in the Kraken, we must believe it was a fair election.

Was it voter fraud? Not per se. Was that a stolen election? I dunno. They changed the rules, illegally in some cases, to give them a big advantage. It's certainly not a fair election. My opinion about that has not changed. It's not based on anything close to absolute proof. But close enough to be confident.

You'll have to pull your asymptote from your own backside, because it's not here.

 

[Ingomike]

Trump has some excellent opportunities to go hard populist and gain support with all that is going on.

He had a great event in Iowa where railed on the deep state and is promising to shut it down. This tweet is a great angle to go after all of DC.

 

[bwframe]

 

[BugI02]

Dissolution is more appealing.

Dissolution ---> Here a miracle happens ---> we all live together in peace and harmony in a 'Star Trek' federation economy dedicated to the advancement of mankind

You need to flesh out that middle step a little

 

[BugI02]

Can't have a 2024 unless you fix 2020....

Can't have 2024 unless you fix 1964

 

[BigRed]

Dissolution ---> Here a miracle happens ---> we all live together in peace and harmony in a 'Star Trek' federation economy dedicated to the advancement of mankind

You need to flesh out that middle step a little

It's no miracle.

States simply rescind their dedicated authority and move on down the road.

Is it some utopia? Nope..... but it does lead to greater decentralization.