Trump 2024 — The second term

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  • LeftyGunner

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    What some of us have said all along.

    “But if you just want the short version, consider all the reasons we’ve heard to vote against Trump. For the most part, they’re rooted in emotion and wholly subjective interpretation. The visceral revulsion Trump inspires in the average right-thinking liberal comes first; only later does this revulsion get shaped into the semblance of an argument.”

    Who is the intended recipient for that message?

    Trump needs the support of suburban women and independent centrists in swing states to win the general election…those people do not watch Tucker Carlson. He is correct about the emotional bias surrounding Trump, though.

    So, let’s put emotion to the side, and look at Trump from as dispassionate a place as we can, okay?

    Jan6 is a real problem for Trump with people who value the rule of law over party...that gives Trump a decided disadvantage with independent moderates, especially those who value democracy and responsible governance. This isn’t an emotional response, it is an entirely reasonable and rational position to take in light of Trump’s actions surrounding the 2020 election.

    RvW is a problem for Trump...and not just from democrats and independent women...Trump took freedom away from women in deeply red states far more than he did in blue or purple states, and the backlash against it shows no sign of slowing. It is perfectly reasonable and rational to vote against the person who was responsible for taking away your freedoms.

    Trump has shown no ability to control the bureaucracy because he surrounds himself with incompetent yes-men instead of people who carry influence in their areas of government and the private sector. This is a factual observation, not an emotional reaction.

    Trump Already has the nomination wrapped up…his problem is attracting moderates and women. He isn‘t going to attract them in the general by insulting them during the primary…remember Hillary and her “deplorables”? That was supposed to appeal to her base, but it ended up motivating voters away from her.

    Moderates didn’t want to vote for her then, and they dont want to vote for Trump now.

    How does Trump overcome this in the general?
     

    LeftyGunner

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    Whomever the shoe fits… :lmfao:

    So, no one outside of your imagination, then?

    Trump does not have the support to win the general without independents and suburban women…so, if he can’t motivate them to vote for him he needs to motivate them to stay home.

    Insulting them does the opposite of both.

    Appealing to only Republicans lost him 2020, lost republicans the senate in 2022, and will not win him the presidency in 2024, so I’ll ask again:

    How does Trump overcome this in the general?
     
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    jamil

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    So, no one outside of your imagination, then?

    Trump does not have the support to win the general without independents and suburban women…so, if he can’t motivate them to vote for him he needs to motivate them to stay home.

    Insulting them does the opposite of both.

    Appealing to only Republicans lost him 2020, lost republicans the senate in 2022, and will not win him the presidency in 2024, so I’ll ask again:

    How does Trump overcome this in the general?
    ClownWorld™.

    Trump has to rely on how bad democrats are and hope like hell the people hate ClownWorld™ more than they hate him. And that’s not a slam dunk since so many NPR listeners deny that ClownWorld™ exists.
     

    LeftyGunner

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    ClownWorld™.

    Trump has to rely on how bad democrats are and hope like hell the people hate ClownWorld™ more than they hate him. And that’s not a slam dunk since so many NPR listeners deny that ClownWorld™ exists.

    Highlighting the absurdity that comes from the oppression olympics caucus of their party does help undermine the Dem’s ability to claim to be the adults in the room…I agree.

    I also agree that it is not a slam-dunk. Trump isn’t really offering a sane alternative to ClownWorld…he’s just a clown from a different circus…TrumpWorld.

    This is why it was so important to the party to run Biden instead of Bernie in 2020. Bernie was offering what the party populists wanted, but…Biden didn’t offend moderates.

    I‘m not so sure the same holds true for Biden in 2024…while he still has a solid foothold among women, he’s done plenty to **** off the moderates as president, so I don’t think he can take them for granted in 24.

    However, the same can be said for Trump…he can’t take the moderate vote for granted either after his Jan6 antics, and he is facing an uphill climb against women thanks to RvW.

    In this political climate the winning combo appears to be a more centrist-facing candidate for President to appeal broadly in the general, and a more party-facing candidate for Vice President to speak to the populist base…Trump cannot offer this, and I think that works badly against him in the general.
     
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    oze

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    Highlighting the absurdity that comes from the oppression olympics caucus of their party does help undermine the Dem’s ability to claim to be the adults in the room…I agree.

    I also agree that it is not a slam-dunk. Trump isn’t really offering a sane alternative to ClownWorld…he’s just a clown from a different circus…TrumpWorld.

    This is why it was so important to the party to run Biden instead of Bernie in 2020. Bernie was offering what the party populists wanted, but…Biden didn’t offend moderates.

    I‘m not so sure the same holds true for Biden in 2024…while he still has a solid foothold among women, he’s done plenty to **** off the moderates as president, so I don’t think he can take them for granted in 24.

    However, the same can be said for Trump…he can’t take the moderate vote for granted either after his Jan6 antics, and he is facing an uphill climb against women thanks to RvW.

    In this political climate the winning combo appears to be a more centrist-facing candidate for President to appeal broadly in the general, and a more party-facing candidate for Vice President to speak to the populist base…Trump cannot offer this, and I think that works badly against him in the general.
    Pro-Trump or anti-Trump, it's hard to dispute what you've written in your last couple of posts.

    Thanks, @LeftyGunner, for some cogent thoughts that can be debated, instead of emotion based name-calling.
     

    KLB

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    Trump needs to change his message. He really does need to drop the election was stolen and revenge and start hammering Biden on how :poop: things have been. He's not going to get anyone else to vote for him with the former, but the latter might get people to overlook their dislike of him in favor of wanting things better again.
     

    Ingomike

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    Trump needs to change his message. He really does need to drop the election was stolen and revenge and start hammering Biden on how :poop: things have been. He's not going to get anyone else to vote for him with the former, but the latter might get people to overlook their dislike of him in favor of wanting things better again.
    Shouldn’t this be the election strategy not primary strategy?

    I do appreciate the inevitability acknowledgment…
     

    KLB

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    Shouldn’t this be the election strategy not primary strategy?

    I do appreciate the inevitability acknowledgment…
    He isn't really running a primary campaign, other than childish snark. It would be better to just run it like it is a forgone conclusion and campaign against Biden.

    Even for a primary campaign though, he needs to pivot. He doesn't need to keep appealing to people like you and Bug. You guys are in his camp.
     

    jamil

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    Pro-Trump or anti-Trump, it's hard to dispute what you've written in your last couple of posts.

    Thanks, @LeftyGunner, for some cogent thoughts that can be debated, instead of emotion based name-calling.
    When I call Haley Dick Cheney in heels, or a warmongering neocon ****, it’s factually based, not emotionally based. It’s what she is. She knows how to string together a few words to make a sentence sound like she’s selling “moderate”. And that’s because so many Republicans remember George Bush, who sounds moderate compared with what we’ve been used to the past 15 years.

    No matter how moderate Haley makes herself sound, she is still Dick Cheney in heels. We’ve done neocon already. They’re not moderates. They’re radically pro war, pro establishment, pro-elitists. She’s on the wrong side of America.
     

    jamil

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    Highlighting the absurdity that comes from the oppression olympics caucus of their party does help undermine the Dem’s ability to claim to be the adults in the room…I agree.

    I also agree that it is not a slam-dunk. Trump isn’t really offering a sane alternative to ClownWorld…he’s just a clown from a different circus…TrumpWorld.

    This is why it was so important to the party to run Biden instead of Bernie in 2020. Bernie was offering what the party populists wanted, but…Biden didn’t offend moderates.

    I‘m not so sure the same holds true for Biden in 2024…while he still has a solid foothold among women, he’s done plenty to **** off the moderates as president, so I don’t think he can take them for granted in 24.

    However, the same can be said for Trump…he can’t take the moderate vote for granted either after his Jan6 antics, and he is facing an uphill climb against women thanks to RvW.

    In this political climate the winning combo appears to be a more centrist-facing candidate for President to appeal broadly in the general, and a more party-facing candidate for Vice President to speak to the populist base…Trump cannot offer this, and I think that works badly against him in the general.
    There’s not a lot to disagree with here, although I don’t view 1/6 the same way you do. Also, my estimation of the ruinous effects of ClownWorldLeft™ is an order of magnitude worse than ClownWorldRight™. We’ve already experienced 4 years of the latter without issue other than the fake world the media has presented.
     
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    KG1

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    When I call Haley Dick Cheney in heels, or a warmongering neocon ****, it’s factually based, not emotionally based. It’s what she is. She knows how to string together a few words to make a sentence sound like she’s selling “moderate”. And that’s because so many Republicans remember George Bush, who sounds moderate compared with what we’ve been used to the past 15 years.

    No matter how moderate Haley makes herself sound, she is still Dick Cheney in heels. We’ve done neocon already. They’re not moderates. They’re radically pro war, pro establishment, pro-elitists. She’s on the wrong side of America.
    Howbout Dick Haley?
     

    INPatriot

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    Legacy politics are going the wayside with legacy media and legacy newsgathering.

    Like it or not, the ability to manipulate the viral media and take advantage of podcasts and the instant soundbite has put Trump where he is, and, consequently, DeSantis so far in the rear view mirror.

    DeSantis is in the top two strongest Governors in the nation. But he doesn't know how to market his message. He treats debates like he's regaling the Heritage Foundation or John Birch Society and doesn't connect with the voter the way Trump connects.

    Haley speaks like the establishment valedictorian she is in front of the National RNC and donor class. If the two party system is maintained, her type of politician will be a dying breed in the GOP for candidates running to be the Chief Executive, though they will still be able to run a muck for Senate seats.

    Gaining the the crowd and going on podcasts is one of the reasons they hate Vivek. He connects and throws the biggest fire balls.

    Focus on the platform or focus on winning? We all know how Democrats run campaigns. I feel like Captain Quint (Robert Shaw) in Jaws. We're chasin' blue gills and tommy cods in the pond, while a great white is wreaking havoc on our way of life.

    We've got to focus less on campaigns, candidates and platforms and more on winning. Though flawed, Trump is best suited for the task. If DeSantis had a thread of panache, he'd already have this thing in the bag. Unfortunately, he's too stiff (from walking around in heels, or so it appears).
     

    INPatriot

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    And so that I can offer solutions while also opining, here are three voting blocs Trump will make further inroads with:

    Northern Blacks seeing more and more money coming out of their paychecks after two generations of Democratic loyalty and no upward mobility gained.

    Hispanic voters, who are naturally socially conservative and pro nuclear family that see the negative effects of unfettered illegal immigration.

    Suburban moms who are sick of the trans ideology being shoved down their kids, especially, sons, throats.

    As the GOP turns more Populist, which it will have to do to survive, I expect more northern black and Hispanic voters everywhere to become a more reliable voting bloc as will legal immigrants that came here seeking the American Dream.
     
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