North Korea attacks South Korea, South retaliates

[jblomenberg16]

Since we're back on topic somewhat, thought I'd post something to ponder.

I wonder if the latest "warnings" from China are almost a bit of bait for the US to take. You know, almost an "I dare you" more than anything.

In the back of my mind, I almost wonder if China doesn't want the US to go to war in the Koreas, not so they can necessarily fight against us in a military battle, but in an effort to further strain our federal budget and add to the ever growing debt.

It isn't a big secret that one of the biggest creditors to the US is China, and in recent years they have begun to position themselves to be able to call us on our debt. They've dumped some of their US securities, and are now in a position to impact the value of the dollar due to the huge amount of foriegn trade we do with each other.


Another war means additional massive defense spending, and my guess is that it will not be a short war if in fact we do get involved in a conflict. That means further additions to the national debt. Couple that with our current GDP balance of payments that includes significant foreign investment in the US to offset the trade deficit, and you might just have the perfect scenario for China to "call" us and sieze a significant portion of US assets both here an abroad.

It is conceivable that we would of course ally oursleves with S. Korea, and China would ally with N. Korea. In effect, China would be lending us money to fight them.


Granted, I have been on the road for the last 12 hours returning from vacation, so I may just be a bit road weary and not thinking straight....but does anyone else think that China has much to gain an the US much to lose in a full scale military conflict in Korea?

 

[teddy12b]

does anyone else think that China has much to gain an the US much to lose in a full scale military conflict in Korea?

I'm half surprised China hasn't "suggested" them buying Alaska or California as a means to settle some of our debt.

 

[mrjarrell]

Make of this what you will. It looks like something is up and it's not good.

Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war - Asia, World - The Independent

 

[a.bentonab]

According to CNN, the newest WikiLeaks show that China is fed up with North Korea.

He said that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

WikiLeaks: China weary of North Korea behaving like 'spoiled child' - CNN.com

It still doesn't make sense on why SK and the US keep trying to bait the North into a war. The Cheonan sinking, the previous military drills that led to the shelling, and even the combined exercises being conducted AT THIS MOMENT are all happening right on the North's doorstep. I don't think we would be too happy about North Korea doing naval drills 10 miles from California would we? And yet we act surprised when the North shells Yeonpyeong island.

Seems the US or SK just wants an excuse to start the war again. I replied to a thread on here about intimidation and I really do think that this meets the legal definition according to IN code.

I guess the fact that China no longer will support NK has emboldened the US/SK. If we want to get rid of Kim Jung Il's regime I might support that but not this reach around way of trying to bait the North into firing first.

 

[kalboy]

I doubt that the US and the South are trying to bait the DPRK into anything. Seoul is on the very front line and both the US and S.Korean economies are trashed badly if it gets flattened. Close proximity is a fact of life there and US and S. Korean military exercises are nothing new. Pyongyang is simply throwing another tantrum to be rewarded for. The return of the foreign workers could be as simple as putting a spin on their expulsion. Wars have a way of turning unpredictable and when the next one breaks out for real here ...... look out! Even Comrade Kim the nutcase knows this.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

So the latest from South Korea, the previous defense minister resigned due in part to "a slow response" to the shelling incident. Also, the rules of engagement for the South's forces have changed. According to a BBC article, the South Korean government says
This leads me to presume that the new policy has LESS emphasis on escalating an engagement. Interesting.
BBC News - N Korea warns war drills take region to 'brink of war'

Also, I saw the first maps of exactly where Yeonpyeong island, Byangyeyong (sp) and the site of the sunken Cheonan ship were. To anyone who is not intimately familiar with the workings at the end of the Korean war, you would think that all of them would be well within North Korea. The NK's really got swindled on that "Northern Limit Line" that hugs their coast. I'd be mad about it too.

And despite many warnings from NK and now China, the US and SK continue their joint naval exercises. I can't see how that is a good decision. To retaliate or not is a different matter, but to try to goad the enemy into firing the (second, or third) first shot by provoking them seems like a poor policy.

The US and ROK have been conducting semi-annual nation-wide military exercises for many years now; continuing to hold scheduled exercises is less provocative than canceling them would be. The DPRK has been initiating violence against the US and ROK for all my life; for example, DPRK guards stomped a US MP Major while I was there in 1975 and almost precipitated a shooting incident at that time. We also found 4 infiltration tunnels over the border; at least one of which was wide enough to pass 8 troops abreast and had a narrow-gauge railway down the middle of it. The following year, DPRK troops hacked two Americans to death as they were cutting down a tree which blocked the view of the DMZ. The two sides play a complicated game of tunnel/countertunnel, infiltrate/counter, etc. With the DPRK economy failing, they are looking for ways to survive, but, failing that, they will invade the South rather than collapse.

The terrain map is the same as it was in 1950, but the level of preparedness is much different than it was then. In 1951, the only thing that kept us from running the Communists out of the Korean Penninsula was the invasion of 300,000 Chinese "volunteers". If the Chinese decide not to back the DPRK, I could see much the same thing happening if the North attacks the South again. But whatever happens, it will be the DPRK making the decision, not US or the ROK.