Lumber prices....inventories and all that!

[CHCRandy]

Just wondering if any of you been watching lumber prices? I seen lumber futures have been crashing last couple weeks, and now we are starting to see it at the stores.....still a long way to go. I ordered some treated 2x4x8's last week. They were close to $9 a few weeks ago, then last week they were like $6.99 when I ordered them, by the time I picked them up 2 days later they were $4.88. A regular pine stud is now $5 again....those got up to close to $10. 7/16 OSB was $50 a sheet.....it has only fallen to $38 so far, but it should fall here soon a lot more.

Shingles have been really hard to get and the manufactures have been claiming they are going 24/7 and couldnt keep inventory. Well last week one of my supply houses had a conference call and they claim to have proof that inventory at the plants are at an all time high. They claim Owens-Corning is intentionally hoarding inventory to serve 2 purposes. 1. It rebuilds the inventory they depleted when plants were shut down last summer. 2. It allowed them to raise prices, thus replenishing cash reserves they depleted last year. Makes sense I guess. He claims they will begin flooding inventory to retail level in next month.....we shall see.

You guys think maybe that was part of the issue with ammo prices soaring so high? I mean, why would they flood the market when they can trickle it out and make the same amount of money selling 1/3 the product.

Just wondering how much of price increases and shortages is legit, and how much is just pure manipulation and because they can. A steak at Krogers was $6 and now is $10 a pound......but the old farmer is getting the same as he got in 2018 for a cow.

 

[Cameramonkey]

tagging for interest. (I'll be reaching out shortly... I had a visitor today, and it was good news)

 

[CallSign Snafu]

Sure would be nice if lumber prices took a healthy decline.

 

[DadSmith]

Just wondering if any of you been watching lumber prices? I seen lumber futures have been crashing last couple weeks, and now we are starting to see it at the stores.....still a long way to go. I ordered some treated 2x4x8's last week. They were close to $9 a few weeks ago, then last week they were like $6.99 when I ordered them, by the time I picked them up 2 days later they were $4.88. A regular pine stud is now $5 again....those got up to close to $10. 7/16 OSB was $50 a sheet.....it has only fallen to $38 so far, but it should fall here soon a lot more.

Shingles have been really hard to get and the manufactures have been claiming they are going 24/7 and couldnt keep inventory. Well last week one of my supply houses had a conference call and they claim to have proof that inventory at the plants are at an all time high. They claim Owens-Corning is intentionally hoarding inventory to serve 2 purposes. 1. It rebuilds the inventory they depleted when plants were shut down last summer. 2. It allowed them to raise prices, thus replenishing cash reserves they depleted last year. Makes sense I guess. He claims they will begin flooding inventory to retail level in next month.....we shall see.

You guys think maybe that was part of the issue with ammo prices soaring so high? I mean, why would they flood the market when they can trickle it out and make the same amount of money selling 1/3 the product.

Just wondering how much of price increases and shortages is legit, and how much is just pure manipulation and because they can. A steak at Krogers was $6 and now is $10 a pound......but the old farmer is getting the same as he got in 2018 for a cow.

Dad and I just picked up seconds Dimension shingles for $35 a square. They are very good shape. There are some that are slightly out of spec but not enough to worry about. We have used seconds for years on our outbuildings and dad put them on his home a few years ago. Holding up well.

 

[CHCRandy]

Dad and I just picked up seconds Dimension shingles for $35 a square. They are very good shape. There are some that are slightly out of spec but not enough to worry about. We have used seconds for years on our outbuildings and dad put them on his home a few years ago. Holding up well.

Yeah, I have installed them for people before. The ones I installed came wrapped in plastic wrap. I have found if you chalk lines and keep an eye out for damaged ones, they work fine in the end.

 

[CHCRandy]

tagging for interest. (I'll be reaching out shortly... I had a visitor today, and it was good news)

Well that sounds good......I hope it works out for you. You must have got one of the guys in a white hat, lol.

 

[DadSmith]

Yeah, I have installed them for people before. The ones I installed came wrapped in plastic wrap. I have found if you chalk lines and keep an eye out for damaged ones, they work fine in the end.

That's what we do lol. But considering they are over $100 a square now days we just go get the seconds. The ones we get don't even have plastic wrap. They are piled on a pallets. On hot days just start at 0600 and cut off around 1200. I'll try to get pictures of what's left tomorrow and post them here.

 

[Cameramonkey]

Well that sounds good......I hope it works out for you. You must have got one of the guys in a white hat, lol.

He lives in Dallas, TX. Just sayin. (and you were right)

 

[KLB]

Is Owens the only producer? If not, then you'd have to have some collusion to make all of that work.

If your theory is correct, they would start releasing inventory because they can only hold so much. They want to keep their plants running, so they will have to open up space in the warehouses by selling it. If there is a lack of available product long term, someone will step in and start filling that void.

 

[DadSmith]

We roofed our saw shed. Holds all things related to chain saws. It was leaking so we got it fixed yesterday.

 

[MRockwell]

Dad and I just picked up seconds Dimension shingles for $35 a square. They are very good shape. There are some that are slightly out of spec but not enough to worry about. We have used seconds for years on our outbuildings and dad put them on his home a few years ago. Holding up well.

Where do you get seconds Shingles? Is it through the distributors(ABC, Reese, etc.)? Need to re-shingle my Dad's house, and with as tight as he is, this might be a good option.LOL

 

[MRockwell]

I have a friend in Illinois who designs trusses and puts building packages together for a lumberyard. Since last December he has been updating a thread on another forum with the price increases and how much the markets are going up. Not futures prices, but prices the yards are paying.
Just recently he shared an e-mail regarding cabinets:

"It seems like daily now we are receiving price increases and extended lead times from our manufacturers. If you know you have customers with cabinets on order you should immediately let them know that the lead time given at the time of order is more than likely not correct now. Every week that has gone by our cabinet manufacturers are getting further behind.


Lead times are at least 20 weeks, and with Welborn or Yorktown it is closer to 30 weeks plus. Right now they aren’t even giving us ship dates until the units go into production. At that point, it will take another two weeks at least to see them.


I wish we could give you better information. But the fact is that the manufacturers don’t have the answers"

5-7 months out for cabinets!

I just got an e-mail last week from my cabinet door supplier, and they are finally raising prices by 10% in August. Mainly due to labor cost increases. Their last price increase was in 2019.

I just talked with my hardwood supplier, and prices for B2 Natural Hard Maple(what I use for cabinets) has not increased much, but getting it is taking longer. They just got a truck of ply that they ordered at the end of March.

I'm hoping things shake out by the end of the year.

 

[rem788]

Talked to Wood Mizer last Tuesday about a portable saw mill. We were quoted 18 months to get the model we wanted.
Salesman stated demand might go down if and when lumber prices went back down. I guess we will see, we put in our deposit today.

 

[amboy49]

Home Depot premium 2x4x8 were selling for $5.48 today. “Standard” 2x4’s for under $5.

 

[CHCRandy]

Where do you get seconds Shingles? Is it through the distributors(ABC, Reese, etc.)? Need to re-shingle my Dad's house, and with as tight as he is, this might be a good option.LOL

No, you cannot get seconds from any supply house or even Lowes, Menards or HD. You can sometimes get them from the factory....like Owens-Corning plant in Brookville, but only in bulk. There is a hardware store on Southside of Indy....or maybe even south of Indianapolis that sells them. You never know really what brand you are getting, that is why they remove the wrappers on them.

I'll be honest, if you are doing a small project....you can probably find discontinued first run shingles for same price or less, if you are not picky on color. Right now closeouts are hard to find....but they will be back around soon.

 

[CHCRandy]

Is Owens the only producer? If not, then you'd have to have some collusion to make all of that work.

If your theory is correct, they would start releasing inventory because they can only hold so much. They want to keep their plants running, so they will have to open up space in the warehouses by selling it. If there is a lack of available product long term, someone will step in and start filling that void.

I think they are all pretty much like that. I try to only use OC....but I have been told it's all of them.

Legend has it, the guy I know who told us this, hired a drone to fly over Brookville plant......and then they went back and compared the footage of inventory in the lot to previous satellite photos that were time stamped. His family has been in the shingle dealing business for over 100 years....so they take it seriously.

 

[CHCRandy]

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We roofed our saw shed. Holds all things related to chain saws. It was leaking so we got it fixed yesterday.

Those shingles kind of look like IKO's, with square sawtooth. You happen to know if they were IKO's? I have never seen IKO seconds......they are a Canadian shingle company.

 

[HoughMade]

I just finished a basement project. The largest room, I finished in 1x8 tongue and groove pine. When I bought all the boards for the walls, last fall into early winter, they cost $6.36 (1”x8”x8’).

After the lumber prices went nuts, I needed a few more because I was making a sliding “barn door” out of the same stuff they were $12.99 each, over twice as much.

I have been following the price of these particular boards just because I remembered what they cost before and during this mess. They were $12.99 even last week. Today I checked and they are $8.99. So, not back to “normal”, but much better.

 

[shibumiseeker]

What with the price increase for fuel for the chainsaws, tractor, and sawmill, a 2x4 is now costing me 37 cents! Outrageous! 8-)

 

[shibumiseeker]

Talked to Wood Mizer last Tuesday about a portable saw mill. We were quoted 18 months to get the model we wanted.
Salesman stated demand might go down if and when lumber prices went back down. I guess we will see, we put in our deposit today.

What did you get?

When I got my first mill in 93 it was a 3 month wait. I got a tour of the plant and had lunch in the cafeteria. I got my second mill in 17 and it was a five month wait.