How long before things go south if the SHTF?

[Tomahawkman]

Remember when covid was hitting and the stores ran out of toilet paper in a few days? Or when a snow storm threatens and the stores‘ shelves are emptied in hours? I remember when 9/11 happened and people were in lines at gas stations that afternoon, filling gas cans.

It would be hours not days.

Exactly, Covid was a recent example too showing us that this country isn't prepared for massive supply chain interruptions.

 

[Leadeye]

Too many variables to answer that question with any accuracy, the only thing you can figure is generalities. Things are likely to get bad quicker in urban areas rather than rural I think is a universal given.

 

[jwamplerusa]

It's not like it hasn't happened before.

I've posted this before, but it fits perfectly here:

LINK: https://powersfirearmstraining.com/resources/Words from a Bosnian Survivalist.pdf

I have pointed more than one acquaintance to that article. It is an eye opener.

 

[fullmetaljesus]

There is actually perfect sense to this.
There is a single stream for kleenex. There are two streams for TP. That is the difference.

From a covid post I did years ago:

All of this made moot by having a bidet.

 

[firecadet613]

This. Inside of 24 hours everyone's life would be insanely different. Even if you hunker down and "bug in". You will be tormented by the sounds of screams and gun fire.

Get out of cities... very doubtful I'll hear any screams or unrecognizable gunfire where I am.

SHTF will be determined by how quickly supply chains break down and city utilities go offline.

Once there is a major interruption of water, sewer, power, grocery, and fuel station deliveries, you'll quickly see societal breakdown. Aside from most living paycheck to paycheck, the majority of folks only have a few days of food on hand (and less water than that).

 

[1nderbeard]

This reminds me to pick up the manual well pump project in my woods next spring. Been putting it off.

 

[loudgroove]

lol, When I was learning to hombrew beer, I was told that if the economy was to ever collapse. I would have something to trade. With the way the world has gone since then. I feel like I would need to have a 20-year supply of ammo and a vast knowledge of booby-traps. Just saying.

 

[Cameramonkey]

lol, When I was learning to hombrew beer, I was told that if the economy was to ever collapse. I would have something to trade. With the way the world has gone since then. I feel like I would need to have a 20-year supply of ammo and a vast knowledge of booby-traps. Just saying.

And pikes. Lots of pikes. Gotta put the heads of your assailants out front to deter future attempts.

 

[bwframe]

And pikes. Lots of pikes. Gotta put the heads of your assailants out front to deter future attempts.

I didn't have this in the plan, but I'm adding it!

That'll be more jobs for the unprepared neighbors, along with the shovel work and perimeter sentry duty.

 

[Mij]

And pikes. Lots of pikes. Gotta put the heads of your assailants out front to deter future attempts.

I’m thinking of using the 6 jillion new t-posts I drove this summer. I’m not tall enough to drive pikes.

 

[shibumiseeker]

I’m not worried about the masses from the cities and towns. We are very isolated and the place and surrounding section of the county are reasonably defendable against Mad Max style steampunks. We are and always have been prepared for 6 months of complete isolation and a couple of years of self sufficiency.

Red Dawn types of invasion, well, somethings you can only turn guerrilla and survive as long as you can, but I guarantee we’ll take out more of them before they get us.

I look at 2-3 days for the major urban crapholes and a week or two for the towns and rural areas.

I don’t fear any of that though. My fear is that extremists will take over the government and over months or years put down anyone who doesn’t believe what they believe and manufacture crimes to justify sending to the gulags those they want to suppress. Or simply label the opposition as vermin and encourage the zealots to do their cleansing. Those have been the most realistic scenario that has played out this last century. Numerous times.

 

[shibumiseeker]

The larger the population density, the shorter the fuse. How many people have no idea what it means to "prep" for the unknown? No power, no cell phone, no A/C, no water coming out of the faucet? It will only take a couple of days before things will get ugly. And if you live in an apartment in a larger city, it won't take long before you turn on your neighbor. Odds are good that you have less than 3-4 days of food or water on hand and hungry people do crazy things, particularly if there are children involved.

People turn feral here when the reloading supplies get tight because of whatever panic has happened lately. You can see the vitriol from the unprepared towards those who bought extra when it was plentiful and won’t sell it to them at the prepanic prices. That’s a tiny, tiny microcosm of what will happen when power, water, and food are out. For a while at first most people will be decent. But that will degrade over time.

 

[loudgroove]

I don’t fear any of that though. My fear is that extremists will take over the government and over months or years put down anyone who doesn’t believe what they believe and manufacture crimes to justify sending to the gulags those they want to suppress. Or simply label the opposition as vermin and encourage the zealots to do their cleansing. Those have been the most realistic scenario that has played out this last century. Numerous times.

Wasn't that a TV show. Where all the electricity went away even thunder storms. Can't remember the name of it.

 

[JCSR]

As I read through this thread I’m wondering/realizing most folks posting have never been poor. Or learned from their elders the lessons of the Great Depression. As I’ve said many times in this forum, what a lot of folks think of as being prepared we call that Tuesday.


Hope they have artillery.

View attachment 315937

Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Cozy439]

As I read through this thread I’m wondering/realizing most folks posting have never been poor. Or learned from their elders the lessons of the Great Depression. As I’ve said many times in this forum, what a lot of folks think of as being prepared we call that Tuesday.


Hope they have artillery.

View attachment 315937

What he said. I am old enough to have talked to grandparents and great grandparents that lived through the Great Depression. I remember a lot but wish they were still here to pass on more of how they did it. They, and others like them would/will do fine. Those that have no concept of self sufficiency. I hope to be like them and make it to a few more WEDNESDAYs.

 

[Itchytriggerfinger]

Don't forget to mix in some physical fitness with your prep.

 

[bwframe]

Don't forget to mix in some physical fitness with your prep.

Exactly! Who can tell what kind of physical requirements you might need come SHTF? Running? Lifting? Shovel work? Dragging deer or other larger bodies?

 

[yeahbaby]

Most would self destruct without a phone for a day ...................

A day, Ha, folks at the gym I go to can't do a workout without having the dam thing. Do a set, stop look at the phone. Do a set, stop look at the phone.

 

[Leo]

I am convinced that we have seen testing by the government several times.

They always claim it was a technical glitch but a couple times a year, in a select location, the welfare shuts down for 24 hours. Usually in heavily populated urban areas with high density of welfare recipients. By the next morning, there are mobs destroying stores and stealing anything they can carry. They are not shutting off power, heat or transportation, just a 24 hour delay on the welfare cards.

Imagine what would happen if the news announced that welfare stopped nationwide, and then the electricity and cell towers shut down.

 

[Lpherr]

People keep asking the same question, from a different angle.
If there's an apocalyptic event, who the hell wants to attempt to survive?
It would require complete isolation and the ability to constantly defend it.
If a large enough group wants what you have, you aren't going to stop them.