Are things starting to settle down?

[Vaquero11]

With the recent run on the gun stores and places that sell ammo, do you guys think people are starting to settle down a little bit? Looks like the AWB has an up hill battle in the Senate and House. How long will it take gun stores to re-stock their shelves?

 

[railbug]

Looks like prices are coming down on the used stuff. I for one am glad to see it.

 

[2cool9031]

Have you checked the prices on ammo lately? I think it has a way to go yet.

 

[tom1025]

Give it until after April. You still have all the poor people waiting to get there tax returns. I have already seen a few threads about what kind of gun should I buy when I gets mines popping up.

 

[Miller Tyme]

Better read this before you pronounce the frenzy over

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2013/01/update-status-of-gun-industry.html?m=1


Here are the highlites

Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.


RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's.

LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.

MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS... ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted...

 

[tom1025]

Have you checked the prices on ammo lately? I think it has a way to go yet.

Raising the prices is the only way for stores to get the inventory back up and keep hoarders at bay.

 

[Lunati]

Better read this before you pronounce the frenzy over

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2013/01/update-status-of-gun-industry.html?m=1


Here are the highlites

Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.


RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's.

LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.

MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS... ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted...

Sources? Didn't think so...this is all hearsay. Of course manufacturers are going to backed up for awhile but the demand is what is going down. Things will level out soon enough.

 

[praff]

I personally feel the initial panic is wearing off with firearm purchases. Prices peeked and have came down and settled in (still very high), but seem to have a ceiling now. Initially, they were crazy. A good friend of mine is a dealer and does a lot of business on gunbroker (I like to call it gunraper). The first week, prices just kept soaring. He sold 10 stripped rock river lowers in an auction for around $850 a piece to the same person. He told me today that his packaging and shipping of firearms as well as receiving them has been cut by about 75% since the beginning of this insanity. I dont think it is near being over, but demand has dropped a little which means prices will drop a little. Prices will stay elevated until supply gets back to normal. This may take several months or a year or longer.

 

[tom1025]

Sources? Didn't think so...this is all hearsay. Of course manufacturers are going to backed up for awhile but the demand is what is going down. Things will level out soon enough.

It must be true. After all his link was to facebook.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Better read this before you pronounce the frenzy over

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2013/01/update-status-of-gun-industry.html?m=1


Here are the highlites

Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.


RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's.

LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.

MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS... ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted...

Interesting...I've been wondering about manufacturer's capacity.

 

[Lunati]

It must be true. After all his link was to facebook.

Lol right?! If it's on the internet it has to be true!

 

[Miller Tyme]

Sources? Didn't think so...this is all hearsay. Of course manufacturers are going to backed up for awhile but the demand is what is going down. Things will level out soon enough.

And of course your source is................................

I tend to believe someone in the gun industry more someone on a computer that claims different with nothing to back that claim up.

Spent the afternoon at my buddys gunshop , his supplier has told him to try and find other sources of ammo if possible as things look bleak for the next 9-12 months. This backs up Ruger's claim to have sold the whole years production at the Shot Show.



But you are probably right, after all YOU must have proof to support your statment.................right.

 

[HavokCycle]

And of course your source is................................

I tend to believe someone in the gun industry more someone on a computer that claims different with nothing to back that claim up.

Spent the afternoon at my buddys gunshop , his supplier has told him to try and find other sources of ammo if possible as things look bleak for the next 9-12 months. This backs up Ruger's claim to have sold the whole years production at the Shot Show.



But you are probably right, after all YOU must have proof to support your statment.................right.

this boils down to the distribution chain.
retailers buy a couple weeks worth of stock, they get it from distributors. distributors stock is anywhere from a month to 6 months worth of inventory. they buy from manufacturers.

typically, manufacturer lead time is anywhere from 6-12 weeks, or more. what happened here, is WE (gun owners) exhausted the retail places, which placed increased orders to distributors. it didnt take long before distributor supply was depleted.

manufacturers have no intent on stepping up production right now because it doesnt make fiscal sense to do so for a short-term surge.

GM wont hire 50000 employees just because everyone bought a chevy in january. no, it takes a sustained, predictable demand to be justifiable.

to reiterate the timeline focus

retailers - days to weeks
distributors - weeks to a few months
manufacturers - a few months to many months and years.

 

[Classic]

Havok you are correct. Modern manufacturing practices do not allow for capitol equipment, trained employees and even physical space to sit around waiting for demand. Production can be slightly increased by adding a shift but even at that where would the skilled employees come from to add the shift? Production capacity increases and the costs associated with them have to be planned months or even years ahead of coming on line, and then the investment can only be made if there is a predictable and SUSTAINED demand exists and there will be a return on the investment.

I don't like the shortages and stories of chasing $1.00 a round ammo one box at a time anymore than anyone else but those doing the most crying an whining just don't have a good understanding of business and economics. If folks would stop pressuring the supply and take a deep breath things would get back to "normal" but even at that it will take months.

 

[tom1025]

Just stopping buying for a few weeks and you will see supplies return to normal in your big box stores. While I don't have a friend who owns a gun shop shop, for the past six years I have had a hand in making sure the distribution centers in Central Indiana receives there supply of ammunition and firearms direct from the manufacturer.

 

[Lunati]

And of course your source is................................

I tend to believe someone in the gun industry more someone on a computer that claims different with nothing to back that claim up.

Spent the afternoon at my buddys gunshop , his supplier has told him to try and find other sources of ammo if possible as things look bleak for the next 9-12 months. This backs up Ruger's claim to have sold the whole years production at the Shot Show.



But you are probably right, after all YOU must have proof to support your statment.................right.

I guess my source would be the basic knowledge of a supply chain, retailers are still going to be receiving stock all year and will get better as demand dies down which is has.

 

[Vaquero11]

Looks like prices are coming down on the used stuff. I for one am glad to see it.

I agree! I think ammo will be a big problem for the next year or so.

 

[CVictor]

It'll be a year until this calms down, IMO

I can't wait until the market is flooded with used ARs. I want another YHM. i foolishly sold mine for $950 a couple months before the panic

Lesson learned

 

[Kirk Freeman]

We have INGO members slinging guns across the glass for a living, we could ask them.

 

[DFM914]

I was in PSS the other day and picked up a new Beretta Nano, there were very few handguns to choose from.