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    jamil

    jamil

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    Ingomike said:
    That is the conventional wisdom…
    Click to expand...
    How do you suppose wisdom becomes conventional? Conventional wisdom is using the available information to draw conclusions that survive reality. You can also call that common sense. But you're mistaking the information that drove yesterday's conclusions for wisdom. The facts months ago was that a large chunk of Trump voters said they wouldn't vote for him if he was convicted. Not captured in that poll was what all might change their minds either way.

    That number of people who were weary about Trump's potential conviction has dropped as it becomes more obvious that Democrats aim to destroy the America that was and replace it with an existance that normal people can't live in.

    Conventional wisdom hasn't changed. The information has changed. It's becoming more apparent that Democrats are prosecuting Trump for political reasons, for one thing. That changes the conclusions of conventional wisdom. Like I said, 80% is not enough. At this point Trump is the the key guy that has a chance to stop the progression to ClownWorld™. I think Trump has to over-perform his 2020 numbers.

    Is he the best for the job? I never thought so, but that's irrelevant now. He's the opposition nominee. If Biden can stay breathing for several more months, he is exactly one of two probable people who will be elected POTUS in November. I don't have to like it, but I feel like it's this or nothing. I just have to hope he won't **** things up in the long run.
     
    Ingomike

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    jamil said:
    How do you suppose wisdom becomes conventional? Conventional wisdom is using the available information to draw conclusions that survive reality. You can also call that common sense. But you're mistaking the information that drove yesterday's conclusions for wisdom.
    Click to expand...
    The problem with conventional wisdom is, it has no expiration, even when it is no longer true.

    I posted this tidbit in the battery charger thread and it is a great analogy to the political situation.

    “Side note; a lot of folks say don’t set your battery directly on concrete, it will go bad. Subsequent internet searches and a few years of doing it have proved that wrong. So why do so many believe that? The element of truth is that old batteries had wooden cases, so warning here, if you have a wooden case battery don’t set it on gravel or concrete for storage…”
     
    Ingomike

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    jamil said:
    Conventional wisdom hasn't changed. The information has changed.
    Click to expand...
    The conventional wisdom has been proven wrong, and may be again.

    In just the latest revocation of conventional wisdom, it was said an indicted candidate could not win the nomination, an indicted candidate indeed did win, and bigly, or is it hugely…

    Now it says a convicted candidate cannot win the election.

    (my money says no conviction before election, so no closure on this question.)
     
    jamil

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    Ingomike said:
    The problem with conventional wisdom is, it has no expiration, even when it is no longer true.
    Click to expand...
    It's apparently not conventional wisdom within your definition to use for people who were saying a year ago or whatever, that they wouldn't vote for Trump if he were convicted, but then apparently are updating their conclusions with new information. If conventional wisdom is a belief based on old information, I think most people, except those who are so conservative they're skeptical of any information that is different from what they believe, will update their thinking with new information. The less ideological, open minded, will update first.

    Ingomike said:
    I posted this tidbit in the battery charger thread and it is a great analogy to the political situation.

    “Side note; a lot of folks say don’t set your battery directly on concrete, it will go bad. Subsequent internet searches and a few years of doing it have proved that wrong. So why do so many believe that? The element of truth is that old batteries had wooden cases, so warning here, if you have a wooden case battery don’t set it on gravel or concrete for storage…”
    Click to expand...
    There's a battery charger thread? Maybe I need one of those.

    But anyway, I think the "don't drop your slide on an empty chamber" thread might be more apropos for INGO to make this point. :laugh:

    People believe stuff because we're wired to keep a belief once accepted. And to change an accepted belief, most of us have to hear a convincing case that the belief is false, AND they have to trust the source of information. But, some people are so open minded they'll fall for anything--blind trust in a source is a bad thing. We call those people gullible. Some people are so close minded that they'll not change a firm belief no matter how strong the evidence or trustworthy the source.

    Point is. I don't think "conventional wisdom" is a useful term. Maybe conventional knowledge would be closer. Wisdom is a process not a destination. A wise outcome might be not to draw a conclusion until enough information is gained to be confident in a conclusion. Maintaining confidence in an incorrect conclusion, even after ample evidence from reliable sources, is also known as delusion. As you've said yourself, sometimes it's okay to say I don't know, but then you have to drop your confidence in the contrary.
     
    jamil

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    Ingomike said:
    The conventional wisdom has been proven wrong, and may be again.

    In just the latest revocation of conventional wisdom, it was said an indicted candidate could not win the nomination, an indicted candidate indeed did win, and bigly, or is it hugely…

    Now it says a convicted candidate cannot win the election.

    (my money says no conviction before election, so no closure on this question.)
    Click to expand...
    The polls showed that a significant portion of Trump's voters would not vote for him if he was convicted. That's the basis for saying he can't win if he's convicted. That information is changing as people start to see what Democrats are doing. So, the thing that is changing isn't the wisdom of cause and effect, it is the information that influences the cause and effect that is changing.

    But, one thing about the polling. The one I saw from I think it was pew research, maybe a year ago, it stipulated -- if people believed the indictments and conviction was above board. I don't remember the exact language, but something like that.

    I think what we're seeing is a couple of things:
    1. A majority of people no matter what side they're on believe that the Biden Administration is using these indictments to prevent Trump from winning. Obviously to potential Trump voters who said they wouldn't vote for him if Trump was convicted, that's not above board. So I think this shows that people are more savvy than you give credit. They were saying, if Trump actually did the things he's accused of, they won't vote for him. If they now believe he didn't do those things, they don't view any convictions as valid.
    2. I think some people are at the point where they see the country being destroyed by Democrats, and even if Trump did the things he's accused of, Democrats are doing worse. Better to elect a felon who puts the nation first than a Democrat who wants to destroy it. Or, probably it's more like, it's better to elect a felon who will fix their economic woes than the guy who caused them. Anyway, when I first started talking about this poll I was already at this place of not caring if Trump was convicted or not. I'd vote for saving the US from those who want to destroy it, even if Trump was guilty of everything he's accused of.
    It's my suspicion that Trump likely won't be convicted of anything before the election. If he wins, he won't be convicted as POTUS, and will survive impeachment attempts that will surely come.

    If he loses, the threat is over, but they'll probably still drag it out so that they can use Trump as a villain to associate with their opposition. They'll probably put most of their resources towards taking X away from Musk, and cracking down on non-state condoned information dissemination.

    But, if Trump was convicted, I think a lot more people who said they wouldn't vote for him if convicted, will actually vote for him. That's not a failure of wisdom, it's an exercise of it.
     
    jamil

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    KLB said:
    No. It is that a candidate that only gets 80% of his potential votes can't win.
    Click to expand...
    This is undeniable with today's reality. Trump isn't polling in a way he can lose 20% of his potential voters. It's delusional to think so. Never say never, but it's quite unlikely that Trump will grow his support by enough to lose 20% and still win. His lead is near margin of error. Mike is probably smoking something really special this morning.
     
    KLB

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    jamil said:
    This is undeniable with today's reality. Trump isn't polling in a way he can lose 20% of his potential voters. It's delusional to think so. Never say never, but it's quite unlikely that Trump will grow his support by enough to lose 20% and still win. His lead is near margin of error. Mike is probably smoking something really special this morning.
    Click to expand...
    There are not and have not been many candidates that could lose that much support and win an election.
     
    Ingomike

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    KLB said:
    No. It is that a candidate that only gets 80% of his potential votes can't win.
    Click to expand...
    Before any polling was done the long held conventional wisdom was that a candidate that was indicted couldn’t win so conviction was an even stronger conventional wisdom. I recall these points about indicting HRC.

    Trump proved the first wrong, by being indicted and winning, the later has not been played out yet. Polls neither prove nor dispel anything…
     
    Ingomike

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    jamil said:
    This is undeniable with today's reality. Trump isn't polling in a way he can lose 20% of his potential voters. It's delusional to think so. Never say never, but it's quite unlikely that Trump will grow his support by enough to lose 20% and still win. His lead is near margin of error. Mike is probably smoking something really special this morning.
    Click to expand...
    You spend too much time on polls…
     
    KLB

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    Ingomike said:
    Before any polling was done the long held conventional wisdom was that a candidate that was indicted couldn’t win so conviction was an even stronger conventional wisdom. I recall these points about indicting HRC.

    Trump proved the first wrong, by being indicted and winning, the later has not been played out yet. Polls neither prove nor dispel anything…
    Click to expand...
    That wasn't what the conversation you replied to said.

    You said 8 out of ten would vote for Trump.

    I said he can't win like that.

    Which led you to your conventional wisdom statement.
     
    Ingomike

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    KLB said:
    That wasn't what the conversation you replied to said.

    You said 8 out of ten would vote for Trump.

    I said he can't win like that.

    Which led you to your conventional wisdom statement.
    Click to expand...
    And I said “The conventional thinking may be taking another hit if this poll is accurate…”

    Didn't say he would win with 80%. The trend is in his favor to prove conventional wisdom wrong again…
     
    Ingomike

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    Ingomike said:
    The conventional thinking may be taking another hit if this poll is accurate…

    justthenews.com

    Poll shows Trump supporters plan to back him even if convicted

    Eight in 10 Trump voters are sure they'd support him, even if he’s convicted of a felony.
    justthenews.com justthenews.com
    Click to expand...
    KLB said:
    That probably loses the election though
    Click to expand...
    Ingomike said:
    That is the conventional wisdom…
    Click to expand...
    KLB said:
    That wasn't what the conversation you replied to said.

    You said 8 out of ten would vote for Trump.

    I said he can't win like that.

    Which led you to your conventional wisdom statement.
    Click to expand...
    Here is what was said…
     
    Ingomike

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    jamil said:
    The polls showed that a significant portion of Trump's voters would not vote for him if he was convicted. That's the basis for saying he can't win if he's convicted. That information is changing as people start to see what Democrats are doing. So, the thing that is changing isn't the wisdom of cause and effect, it is the information that influences the cause and effect that is changing.

    But, one thing about the polling. The one I saw from I think it was pew research, maybe a year ago, it stipulated -- if people believed the indictments and conviction was above board. I don't remember the exact language, but something like that.

    I think what we're seeing is a couple of things:
    1. A majority of people no matter what side they're on believe that the Biden Administration is using these indictments to prevent Trump from winning. Obviously to potential Trump voters who said they wouldn't vote for him if Trump was convicted, that's not above board. So I think this shows that people are more savvy than you give credit. They were saying, if Trump actually did the things he's accused of, they won't vote for him. If they now believe he didn't do those things, they don't view any convictions as valid.
    2. I think some people are at the point where they see the country being destroyed by Democrats, and even if Trump did the things he's accused of, Democrats are doing worse. Better to elect a felon who puts the nation first than a Democrat who wants to destroy it. Or, probably it's more like, it's better to elect a felon who will fix their economic woes than the guy who caused them. Anyway, when I first started talking about this poll I was already at this place of not caring if Trump was convicted or not. I'd vote for saving the US from those who want to destroy it, even if Trump was guilty of everything he's accused of.
    It's my suspicion that Trump likely won't be convicted of anything before the election. If he wins, he won't be convicted as POTUS, and will survive impeachment attempts that will surely come.

    If he loses, the threat is over, but they'll probably still drag it out so that they can use Trump as a villain to associate with their opposition. They'll probably put most of their resources towards taking X away from Musk, and cracking down on non-state condoned information dissemination.

    But, if Trump was convicted, I think a lot more people who said they wouldn't vote for him if convicted, will actually vote for him. That's not a failure of wisdom, it's an exercise of it.
    Click to expand...
    Conventional wisdom sounds a lot like normalacy bias…
     
    jamil

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    Ingomike said:
    Before any polling was done the long held conventional wisdom was that a candidate that was indicted couldn’t win so conviction was an even stronger conventional wisdom. I recall these points about indicting HRC.

    Trump proved the first wrong, by being indicted and winning, the later has not been played out yet. Polls neither prove nor dispel anything…
    Click to expand...
    They used the polls to say Trump would not win because too many of his voters said they would not vote for him if he was convicted. It seems to me that you’re trying to say everyone was wrong, when the reality is, people were going by the information available to them at the time. The information they believe has changed, and people appear to be making judgements from what they believe now.

    And as I said, desperation is also in play as they see how horribly the Left is behaving right now. But also, the impact of Democrat policies on people’s lives has to be large. Even if they believe Trump is a criminal, he’s only second worst to Joe Biden. “Conventional wisdom doesn’t come close to explaining the circumstances driving this election. There’s nothing conventional about it.
     
    DoggyDaddy

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    Ingomike said:
    The problem with conventional wisdom is, it has no expiration, even when it is no longer true.

    I posted this tidbit in the battery charger thread and it is a great analogy to the political situation.

    “Side note; a lot of folks say don’t set your battery directly on concrete, it will go bad. Subsequent internet searches and a few years of doing it have proved that wrong. So why do so many believe that? The element of truth is that old batteries had wooden cases, so warning here, if you have a wooden case battery don’t set it on gravel or concrete for storage…”
    Click to expand...
    I always wondered that about batteries! The wooden case thing makes sense. :thumbsup:
     
    Ingomike

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    jamil said:
    They used the polls to say Trump would not win because too many of his voters said they would not vote for him if he was convicted. It seems to me that you’re trying to say everyone was wrong, when the reality is, people were going by the information available to them at the time. The information they believe has changed, and people appear to be making judgements from what they believe now.
    Click to expand...
    No, first they used polls to say Trump could not win the primary if indicted, He proved that wrong. Now they are doing it again with the conviction and the general election and they may just be wrong again.

    Do you really think most political operatives circa 2015 would have said that a primary candidate could win a primary after a federal indictment? I do not. That was the conventional wisdom of that time and I doubt that many would have even added a circumstance caveat because that is what everyone believed.

    All you are citing is the transition from conventional wisdom, to the destruction of that norm, to the new reality…
     
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