Coronavirus II

[Alpo]

Someone above said: well, multiply the number by 12. That isn't how exponential curves work.

I am not likely to die if you have malaria, drink a bourbon sitting next to me, etc. etc.

And I don't know how likely it is that the best estimates to date are any better than a delphi approach. We need time and more data. How much time? April. We ought to be much more informed in a month.

If it has peaked, or a drug becomes available that works, great. If not, we'll have to decide what risks to take. Unfortunately, a good portion of the work force is 55 and over. If they decide not to go back to work, I'm not how we turn the curve upward on the economy.

 

[smokingman]

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/comet-atlas-will-it-become-a-naked-eye-object/

Nothing to do with the virus,but if you are at home and have a night time view it will be worth watching.
You can already see it with 50x binoculars.
They are estimating it will end up being 5 times as bright in the night sky as Jupiter,or a once in a century brightness comet.

I have posted a bit on the malaria drugs and studies in other countries. I was told to let people have hope by some fellow INGO members.This is a different break down of the latest study(not me doing it personally,but points out some of the same things I pointed out about the first study).
I think the truth is more important. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...e-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

If we get a drug therapy that works well for anyone,and I mean truly works well trust me I will post it asap. Cloroquine and zinc do not look to be that.

Which is why [FONT=&amp]DR. BIRX at the White House briefing said we do not have a therapy that works and no magical vaccine or therapy. Followed by doctor [/FONT][FONT=&amp]DR. FAUCI agreeing with that. [/FONT]

 

[churchmouse]

So my daughter just called and said we may be on a 2 week lock down in 2 days...….any one verify this...???

 

[cobber]

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/comet-atlas-will-it-become-a-naked-eye-object/

Nothing to do with the virus,but if you are at home and have a night time view it will be worth watching.
You can already see it with 50x binoculars.
They are estimating it will end up being 5 times as bright in the night sky as Jupiter,or a once in a century brightness comet.

[FONT=&amp][/FONT]

Oh great, all we needed was a comet!

Now just need a volcano and we have the trifecta!

 

[jsharmon7]

This is what I've been thinking about too. Supposedly they have given approx. 1,100 people the meds in NY but there has'nt been any solid info about any results yet that I've seen.

I think it’ll be interesting to see the outcomes in another week. The current mortality rate without these medications is low, but if this stuff cuts the time in hospital or minimizes severity of symptoms then it’ll be successful. I doubt there is a “cure,” but anything that can help would be a positive.

 

[KG1]

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/comet-atlas-will-it-become-a-naked-eye-object/

Nothing to do with the virus,but if you are at home and have a night time view it will be worth watching.
You can already see it with 50x binoculars.
They are estimating it will end up being 5 times as bright in the night sky as Jupiter,or a once in a century brightness comet.

I have posted a bit on the malaria drugs and studies in other countries. I was told to let people have hope by some fellow INGO members.This is a different break down of the latest study(not me doing it personally,but points out some of the same things I pointed out about the first study).
I think the truth is more important. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...e-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

If we get a drug therapy that works well for anyone,and I mean truly works well trust me I will post it asap. Cloroquine and zinc do not look to be that.

Which is why [FONT=&amp]DR. BIRX at the White House briefing said we do not have a therapy that works and no magical vaccine or therapy. Followed by doctor [/FONT][FONT=&amp]DR. FAUCI agreeing with that. [/FONT]

I've been looking for more than just anecdotal and have'nt seen anything yet so I've not been on board with the efficacy of this particular therapy.

 

[snorko]

My money's on Sandworms.

Nah, the New Madrid will let loose.

 

[smokingman]

Does anyone remember the model I posted in beta form?
It is now the one the White house used today. Myself and a few others did get some changes made to it.
The president himself today pointed out it was an absolute best case scenario based on everyone staying home and socially isolating.

I contacted a few others,and did get some changes made to the model on both the 30,and today. They posted the updates on COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
It does improve the model. It is still not perfect,but as I pointed out when it was just a beta model it is a good one,especially if you want the best possible case.

The shaded areas are not high and low range,but the error percent in the lowest best case run. Just an FYI. And yes I was on the three hour call on the 30 and the 3 hour call this morning.

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Indiana is also using this model. Click the United States of America and scroll down to Indiana if you want to see it.

They understand the model is not perfect,and most of the conversation was how to present enough information to get states to take action without sounding alarmist. So that is what was done.

Be well,be safe,you are loved.

 

[Ziggidy]

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/comet-atlas-will-it-become-a-naked-eye-object/

Nothing to do with the virus,but if you are at home and have a night time view it will be worth watching.
You can already see it with 50x binoculars.
They are estimating it will end up being 5 times as bright in the night sky as Jupiter,or a once in a century brightness comet.

I have posted a bit on the malaria drugs and studies in other countries. I was told to let people have hope by some fellow INGO members.This is a different break down of the latest study(not me doing it personally,but points out some of the same things I pointed out about the first study).
I think the truth is more important. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...e-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

If we get a drug therapy that works well for anyone,and I mean truly works well trust me I will post it asap. Cloroquine and zinc do not look to be that.

Which is why [FONT=&amp]DR. BIRX at the White House briefing said we do not have a therapy that works and no magical vaccine or therapy. Followed by doctor [/FONT][FONT=&amp]DR. FAUCI agreeing with that. [/FONT]

What I found most interesting were the comments:
1:We will soon know what kind of people Dr. Raoult is. But that doesn’t matter at all. Mainly because there is plenty of in vitro evidence that antimalarial drugs work on coronavirae. And there are even animal tests as well.
But, due to the emergency, Japan, China, South Korea, Belgium, NYC, and US at large will test antimalarial drugs for treating COVID-19. Asking for the usual publication process (as if is a flawless one) that usually takes months, is kind of inconsiderate when many human lives are at risk. We might think of a new peer-review process for this kind of emergencies. And focus on the Science behind the ideas, instead of fatuous fights between pompous personalities. We don’t have the time for that.

2:“Take bleach. Very good at killing germs. But too caustic to give to people at a dose which would be lethal for germs.”But we’re not talking about something that hasn’t been proven to be safe. The drug has been used for decades. It’s even safe for pregnant women to take!
I agree with Hugo J Bohorquez, PhD. My own version not so eloquently put:

We need a Sherman/MacArthur moment from Trump. Allow doctors to give HCQ as a preventative to everyone that it’s safe for and who wants it in coronavirus hot spots. See what happens. What the hell do we have to lose?

 

[Hatin Since 87]

So my daughter just called and said we may be on a 2 week lock down in 2 days...….any one verify this...???

I thought we were already on a 2 week lockdown? Or is this one supposed to be more harsh?

 

[Bennettjh]

Does anyone remember the model I posted in beta form?
It is now the one the White house used today. Myself and a few others did get some changes made to it.
The president himself today pointed out it was an absolute best case scenario based on everyone staying home and socially isolating.

I contacted a few others,and did get some changes made to the model on both the 30,and today. They posted the updates on COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
It does improve the model. It is still not perfect,but as I pointed out when it was just a beta model it is a good one,especially if you want the best possible case.

The shaded areas are not high and low range,but the error percent in the lowest best case run. Just an FYI. And yes I was on the three hour call on the 30 and the 3 hour call this morning.

COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Indiana is also using this model. Click the United States of America and scroll down to Indiana if you want to see it.

They understand the model is not perfect,and most of the conversation was how to present enough information to get states to take action without sounding alarmist. So that is what was done.

Be well,be safe,you are loved.

I have looked at those models. Very helpful.

 

[smokingman]

What I found most interesting were the comments:
1:We will soon know what kind of people Dr. Raoult is. But that doesn’t matter at all. Mainly because there is plenty of in vitro evidence that antimalarial drugs work on coronavirae. And there are even animal tests as well.
But, due to the emergency, Japan, China, South Korea, Belgium, NYC, and US at large will test antimalarial drugs for treating COVID-19. Asking for the usual publication process (as if is a flawless one) that usually takes months, is kind of inconsiderate when many human lives are at risk. We might think of a new peer-review process for this kind of emergencies. And focus on the Science behind the ideas, instead of fatuous fights between pompous personalities. We don’t have the time for that.

2:“Take bleach. Very good at killing germs. But too caustic to give to people at a dose which would be lethal for germs.”But we’re not talking about something that hasn’t been proven to be safe. The drug has been used for decades. It’s even safe for pregnant women to take!
I agree with Hugo J Bohorquez, PhD. My own version not so eloquently put:

We need a Sherman/MacArthur moment from Trump. Allow doctors to give HCQ as a preventative to everyone that it’s safe for and who wants it in coronavirus hot spots. See what happens. What the hell do we have to lose?

It is not that safe of a drug. Here is a veteran run site that goes into great detail about past and current issues with United States soldiers who have taken it,and suffered some of the side effects.
https://quinism.org/press-releases/...SKpIyR6SL5YmRkxckN64L-xSwSZU7jVrPY9djeDUwkIQ0

 

[ghuns]

I heard they're banning liquor sales tomorrow.

Spoiler alert... They're not.

Sent from my HTC U11 life using Tapatalk

 

[churchmouse]

I thought we were already on a 2 week lockdown? Or is this one supposed to be more harsh?

We are on restricted travel not a total lockdown.

What I was told was stay in your homes for 2 weeks. Supposed to start in 2 days but I can not find anything to verify. Not wanting to spread rumors or panic. I just looking for reliable info.

 

[Super Bee]

So my daughter just called and said we may be on a 2 week lock down in 2 days...….any one verify this...???

The country, state or Indy?

 

[Ziggidy]

It is not that safe of a drug. Here is a veteran run site that goes into great detail about past and current issues with United States soldiers who have taken it,and suffered some of the side effects.
https://quinism.org/press-releases/...SKpIyR6SL5YmRkxckN64L-xSwSZU7jVrPY9djeDUwkIQ0

There are a lot of much smarter people out there than I will ever be, but this tells me nothing. It states "in susceptible individuals". Have you ever heard a television commercial and it mentions possible side effects? All drugs can have adverse reactions in individuals. There are medications people take that make it necessary for them to take an additional medication to combact side effects of the other.

We have nothing to lose and everythign to gain. Asprin can be life threratening to some people. Peanut butter kills some people!

 

[KittySlayer]

The country, state or Indy?

Well he said “we”. Maybe he just means his family and his daughter.

 

[smokingman]

The country, state or Indy?

https://twitter.com/GovHolcomb/status/1245107221832388608

 

[Hatin Since 87]

We are on restricted travel not a total lockdown.

What I was told was stay in your homes for 2 weeks. Supposed to start in 2 days but I can not find anything to verify. Not wanting to spread rumors or panic. I just looking for reliable info.

Dang. That’d make 4 weeks off work. We’re aerospace so technically “essential” but our owner said she’s not risking it, stay home for 2 weeks. She said she’ll pay us for the 2 weeks but any further lockdowns will be at a loss. On one hand I think to prevent the spread it’s probably not a bad thing. On the other hand, I like money. We shall see

 

[smokingman]

There are a lot of much smarter people out there than I will ever be, but this tells me nothing. It states "in susceptible individuals". Have you ever heard a television commercial and it mentions possible side effects? All drugs can have adverse reactions in individuals. There are medications people take that make it necessary for them to take an additional medication to combact side effects of the other.

We have nothing to lose and everythign to gain. Asprin can be life threratening to some people. Peanut butter kills some people!

At the site are links to the study. But here is a link and some of it quoted.We are not talking one in 1000 more like 600 out of 1000.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918116/
[FONT=&quot]In a final published study of 31 previously healthy Army Medical Department officers who volunteered to take the drug experimentally at treatment doses [[/FONT]152[FONT=&quot]], 77 % suffered some form of mental disturbances: 71 % complained of abnormal, anxious and disturbing and rarely terrifying dreams; 58 % developed sleep disturbances, with loss of up to half of normal sleep, prompting sedative use to treat insomnia in two-fifths of these, or 26 % of the total; 39 % went on to develop severe psychic disturbances, of which a quarter, of 10 % of the total, suffered frank psychoses with delusions, hallucinations, and profound changes in mood, including mania; 35 % complained of tension; 32 % complained of restlessness, and 29 % depression. During an earlier phase of the trial when the drug had been administered at lower prophylactic dose rates, 29 % had noted mild complaints, most significantly abnormal dreams and sleep disturbances, which were deemed “the most reliable warning sign” of the development of “more severe reactions” [/FONT]