What will happen in the Ammunition Market in 2021?

bwframe

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Ingomike

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  • Expect ammunition demand to remain high:
    • Nearly 2/3 indicate their current ammunition inventory is lower than they would prefer (64%).
    • When asked how much more ammunition they would like to have on hand, 43% reported much more while 38% reported a little more. 17% were satisfied with the amounts they had on hand.
 

DadSmith

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  • Expect ammunition demand to remain high:
    • Nearly 2/3 indicate their current ammunition inventory is lower than they would prefer (64%).
    • When asked how much more ammunition they would like to have on hand, 43% reported much more while 38% reported a little more. 17% were satisfied with the amounts they had on hand.
The 17% are the ones that probably are not shooting much right now. I have cut back on my centerfire use down to enough to keep practicing to keep my edge so to speak. I've been mostly shooting 22lr handguns and rifles when I find some 22lr to buy reasonably priced.
 

jwamplerusa

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Retail prices are edging down. I'm less sure about the wholesale price which longer term will actually underpin retail pricing.

Anecdotally based on watching ammo seek and other sites, ammo prices do seem to be edging down from their high point. I expect prices to continue to edge down through 2021.

Barring any more panics, or more government stupidity, I expect prices to continue down in 2022 with periods of steep declines. It is my belief, and hope, that one of the things underpinning the current retail pricing is logistics.

Ammo is heavy, and has hazardous material shipping limitations. As a good part of the US ammunition supply is foreign produced especially at the lower price points, shipping becomes a major bottleneck. I have had numerous people tell me, and read numerous articles corroborating same, that the worldwide shipping logistics system is simply still clogged. As an example all of the ships sitting off the west coast of the US unable to get to the container unloading facilities.

As the international shipping system unclogs, and lower cost higher volume shipping becomes available to the foreign ammunition producers I believe that there will be a flood of the lower cost foreign rangefodder come in. Supply and demand, and all that, that should obviously drive overall prices down.

If my nearly opaque crystal ball has any hope of validity at all, it is my hope that by late 2022 mid-2023 we are back to roughly 18 to 22 cents per round 9 mm FMJ. Based upon inflation trends to date I would consider that to be a good strike price.
 

BE Mike

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If my nearly opaque crystal ball has any hope of validity at all, it is my hope that by late 2022 mid-2023 we are back to roughly 18 to 22 cents per round 9 mm FMJ. Based upon inflation trends to date I would consider that to be a good strike price.

Hope springs eternal. I'm not nearly so optimistic. Having said that, criminals in Louisville seem to have no shortage of ammo to shoot one another.
 

Ingomike

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Retail prices are edging down. I'm less sure about the wholesale price which longer term will actually underpin retail pricing.

Anecdotally based on watching ammo seek and other sites, ammo prices do seem to be edging down from their high point. I expect prices to continue to edge down through 2021.

Barring any more panics, or more government stupidity, I expect prices to continue down in 2022 with periods of steep declines. It is my belief, and hope, that one of the things underpinning the current retail pricing is logistics.

Ammo is heavy, and has hazardous material shipping limitations. As a good part of the US ammunition supply is foreign produced especially at the lower price points, shipping becomes a major bottleneck. I have had numerous people tell me, and read numerous articles corroborating same, that the worldwide shipping logistics system is simply still clogged. As an example all of the ships sitting off the west coast of the US unable to get to the container unloading facilities.

As the international shipping system unclogs, and lower cost higher volume shipping becomes available to the foreign ammunition producers I believe that there will be a flood of the lower cost foreign rangefodder come in. Supply and demand, and all that, that should obviously drive overall prices down.

If my nearly opaque crystal ball has any hope of validity at all, it is my hope that by late 2022 mid-2023 we are back to roughly 18 to 22 cents per round 9 mm FMJ. Based upon inflation trends to date I would consider that to be a good strike price.
The international shipping will be in turmoil for at least another year. Look at container availability and cost to see the issues...
 

tude

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Just speaking of what I see and hear around here in south central Ohio. Gas is now $3.17 gallon, groceries going up weekly, most everything has went up. Biden bucks were softening the pain but are now gone. Fun shooting is done for most, " need " is now beating out "want more" for ammo. I have noticed our RK ammo prices run a little higher than what you Hoosiers post.
 

Opie

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I just spoke directly with the individual who orders ammo for the Indiana Law Enforcement Academy. He said there was almost no change on ammo prices when he placed the order this month from the same time last year. He said most were the same, and others were about .10 more per box of 50. This is 9mm, 40, 45, 5.56, and 12ga.

I think we will continue to see increased prices from wholesale and commercial/retail markup, but the manufacturers have not raised prices significantly. I think a lot of people surveyed may not be happy with the amount of ammo on hand, but who is? I think it's going to get better. Will we see cases of 9mm at $165 again soon? Probably not. I do think $300/1000 9mm is coming in the next 12 months. Honestly, most working class people are not going to pay current prices for this hobby long term. The average Joe is going to stop shooting recreationally and will just stock what is necessary. As the new gun owners fizzle out, prices will drop. Until then, make your practice count. Write down what you need to work on before you go to the range and stick to it. This is a time to work on dry-fire and very intentional, focused training.
 

Ark

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Maybe the rona panic is wearing off, but Biden is on the blitz for gun control and the claws of inflation and raw materials increase are really starting to bite this year. I don't see any reason to believe ammo will ever go back to 2019 normal.
 

Brian's Surplus

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I think we will continue to see increased prices from wholesale and commercial/retail markup, but the manufacturers have not raised prices significantly.
While I wish that was true, the fact is that they have all increased prices (Federal has increased prices multiple times in the last 15 months). I guess it depends on your definition of "significantly". Some manufacturers (Norma comes to mind) have DOUBLED wholesale prices on some calibers.
If they did not increase prices, then either they were already too high, or they are losing money now. The cost of components and materials has increased significantly (not to mention shipping and overtime pay).
 

Bill2905

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The cost of most everything in our economy has risen significantly. I see few items, if any, going back to 2019 prices unless softened demand dictates it.

I used to buy 223 for 35-40 cents per round before COVID. My guess is that it will settle at 45-50 cents.
 

DadSmith

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I noticed lead and copper prices have come down some that will help lower prices in the future.

Lead $2183 a ton today
Copper $9887 a ton today
 

Cameramonkey

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But as others have said, due to inflation, the old prices ($300/case 9mm) will never return. It just cant. The purchasing power of today's dollar isnt as strong as last year's dollar thanks to those stimulus checks and other causes.

Im not saying its gonna be $600 cases. We just wont return to that 2019 level. There will be a new normal. ($400/case? nobody knows)
 

IUKalash429

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What will the second half of 2021 look like in regards to ammunition? I have zero idea. But I do think that things will continue to trickle down until there is another inevitable mass shooting, presidential election, or any other panic-buying situation. What I'm seeing is retailers starting to haggle with us. We're no longer buying ammo at your inflated case prices? So you drop the case price by $20, $30 and send another spam email. Still not buying? It goes down another $20. The retailers seem to be gradually lowering prices until the find a sweet spot for the majority of buyers. Maybe it's $400/1000 for lousy 115gr 9mm. I hope it goes lower than that.

Also, 2021 in some ways is the year of Reddit. Look at what those trolls did to GME, AMC, and others (*stonks*). If you follow any popular gun/ammo subreddits you see users posting ammo deals daily only to be dog piled with "hold"/"hodl"/"HODL" comments. Take it with a grain of salt, but a lot of Redditors and members of gun forums far larger and more active than INGO claim they're still not buying ammo until it reaches X dollars per case.

Remember the demand in supply and demand. If we collectively refuse to buy it, retailers will be forced to lower prices. But how often are we as gun owners collective? We are usually our own worst enemies.
 
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