"Unexpectedly" poor jobs report...

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  • d.kaufman

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    I know a kid who went from cook at a Bob Evans to regional manager in 5 years. He gets a taste of the profits of every BE in his region as well as his salary, and there are plenty of steps above him on that ladder
    One of my older sisters started out at Taco Bell In HS. She moved up the ladder to district manager making 100k a year. Now is a district manager for Red Robin in AZ making around 120k per year plus bonuses.

    The $7 an hour jobs can turn into careers if one applies themselves
     

    DoggyDaddy

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    One of my older sisters started out at Taco Bell In HS. She moved up the ladder to district manager making 100k a year. Now is a district manager for Red Robin in AZ making around 120k per year plus bonuses.

    The $7 an hour jobs can turn into careers if one applies themselves
    But that requires one to get off their butt and actually start somewhere. Seems like everyone wants to start at the top.

    iu
     

    BugI02

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    They're doing it at $7 an hour, so what's your argument?
    That forced rises in the pay for unskilled labor just encourages more automation, because replacing 5 or 6 kids wanting $15 per hour, the upfront cost of the machines pays for themselves quickly. And let's face it, you're not going to go somewhere else because you want a person to take your order, just like you're willing to scan your own groceries up to a certain point
     
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    BugI02

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    So over what time frame does a melt up occur? I looked it up and it said Sudden.
    Weeks to months, depending on the level of irrational enthusiasm. Keep an eye on money flows into the market, when everybody gets in it's time to take some profits off the table. Also often parabolic at the very end and double tops as the marks buy the dip
     

    BugI02

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    Yeah, because the economy and employment environment are exactly the same today as they were back in the day.
    In '78 there had just been two recent market downturns due to oil price shocks and under Carter, the inflation rate was 11.35% in '78, 13.5%% in '79 and 10.3% in '80

    Interest on a 30 year mortgage was 9.64% in '78, 11.2% in '79 and 13.74% in '80 and in '78 a supreme court case, Marquette Nat. Bank v. First of Omaha Corp. effectively overturned state interest rate caps on credit cards, interest for which took off

    But, do tell us how rough you've had it
     
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    Tombs

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    That forced rises in the pay for unskilled labor just encourages more automation, because replacing 5 or 6 kids wanting $15 per hour, the upfront cost of the machines pays for themselves quickly. And let's face it, you're not going to go somewhere else because you want a person to take your order, just like you're willing to scan your own groceries up to a certain point

    Okay, but they would be doing that regardless, so I'm asking, what's your point?

    It doesn't matter if minimum wage was $1, it's still cheaper to provide a touch screen to the customer.
     

    Tombs

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    In '78 there had just been to recent market downturns due to oil price shocks and under Carter, the inflation rate was 11.35% in '78, 13.5%% in '79 and 10.3% in '80

    Interest on a 30 year mortgage was 9.64% in '78, 11.2% in '79 and 13.74% in '80 and in '78 a supreme court case, Marquette Nat. Bank v. First of Omaha Corp. effectively overturned state interest rate caps on credit cards, interest for which took off

    But, do tell us how rough you've had it

    Minimum wage was equivalent to $16 an hour today, so please do explain how unentitled boomers are.
     

    UnknownOne

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    They don't have Big Macs, but a BBQ beef brisket at the Costco Food court is $4.99, and a whole pizza is $9.99. Some locations have a $4.99 cheeseburger.

    The food service worker wage at Costco? $14.92 an hour.

    The average wage of a McDonald's crew member in Australia is $18 an hour. Big Mac price? $6.45.

    Enjoy being wrong. :):

    Costco food court is a known loss leader zone so that may be a poor comparison....
     

    BugI02

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    Okay, but they would be doing that regardless, so I'm asking, what's your point?
    It's the delta, the rate of change increases with increasing wage demands. They are experimenting with it at $7.35 per hour, but there are certainly downsides to automation. At $15 per hour, they may no longer have a choice. A process that may have taken ten years, or longer if the decision was made to wait upon a more capable version of the machines, can be compressed into a year or two. It isn't as if the stores have no choice but accept the wage demands

    Large corporations can afford to have automation custom designed for their purposes and have the wherewithal to get them manufactured and supplied to their franchisees. It will be another nail in the coffin of small business, however
     
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    churchmouse

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    But that requires one to get off their butt and actually start somewhere. Seems like everyone wants to start at the top.

    iu
    New hire walks in. Manager hands him a broom. New hire looks confused. Manager says......when you master this broom and how best to use it you can train your replacement and we will move you up to waste baskets.

    The process. It has been lost in the may-lay.
     

    BugI02

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    Past performance is no guarantee of future gains. Welcome to reality 101

    What's going to happen to non-binary gender fluid diversity manager when the whip comes down? The plumber and the electrician will still have steady work. Maybe kids should have sought useful skills

    Take Act for example. He was/is a highly skilled nuclear reactor operator. When he got out, there weren't a whole lot of civilian jobs in that specialty. but he isn't sitting on his *** whinging that someone should pay him more at some low skilled job, he has voluntarily taken on difficult and demanding work because that's what it takes to give him the lifestyle he desires. He knows better than to think someone is just going to hand him the good life

    What was it Cher said in that commercial? If it was easy, everybody would do it
     

    Tombs

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    Jan 13, 2011
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    It's the delta, the rate of change increases with increasing wage demands. They are experimenting with it at $7.35 per hour, but there are certainly downsides to automation. At $15 per hour, they may no longer have a choice. A process that may have taken ten years, or longer if the decision was made to wait upon a more capable version of the machines, can be compressed into a year or two. It isn't as if the stores have no choice but accept the wage demands

    Large corporations can afford to have automation custom designed for their purposes and have the wherewithal to get them manufactured and supplied to their franchisees. It will be another nail in the coffin of small business, however

    Dude, they're going to do it regardless.
    They already have, and have been phasing out cashiers and order takers for awhile now.

    It has been ongoing for the past few years. Self checkout at groceries has exploded to the point where there's only 1 or 2 manned checkout lanes at most grocery stores.
    Most restaurants already are primarily done with either cell phone programs or with touch screens.
    Even sit down places now basically expect you to do it instead of having a proper waiter.

    You're acting like this can be slowed or delayed when it can't be. It's also going to start eating up all driving jobs within the next few years. I expect most chains will be entirely automated within the decade, using the amazon store model.

    It's cheaper no matter the wages, because of insurance and benefits, the human resources required to employ someone and keep them around, etc.

    Warehouse work will be the next one to bite the dust, before automated driving.
     

    BugI02

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    Dude, they're going to do it regardless.
    They already have, and have been phasing out cashiers and order takers for awhile now.

    It has been ongoing for the past few years. Self checkout at groceries has exploded to the point where there's only 1 or 2 manned checkout lanes at most grocery stores.
    Most restaurants already are primarily done with either cell phone programs or with touch screens.
    Even sit down places now basically expect you to do it instead of having a proper waiter.

    You're acting like this can be slowed or delayed when it can't be. It's also going to start eating up all driving jobs within the next few years. I expect most chains will be entirely automated within the decade, using the amazon store model.

    It's cheaper no matter the wages, because of insurance and benefits, the human resources required to employ someone and keep them around, etc.

    Warehouse work will be the next one to bite the dust, before automated driving.
    It will take A LOT longer to replace plumbers and electricians and HVAC guys with machines. So, what lesson is the mechanization of low skill jobs teaching you - that government should provide the income without the job?

    Where will government get the money when ever fewer people have jobs? Big tech is all for UBI as long as they don't have to pay for it, so I doubt they'll volunteer even as their profits soar from making the machines and software that disrupt traditional labor markets

    No one is coming to save you, not even Karl or Vladimir Ilyich
     

    Tombs

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    It will take A LOT longer to replace plumbers and electricians and HVAC guys with machines. So, what lesson is the mechanization of low skill jobs teaching you - that government should provide the income without the job?

    Where will government get the money when ever fewer people have jobs? Big tech is all for UBI as long as they don't have to pay for it, so I doubt they'll volunteer even as their profits soar from making the machines and software that disrupt traditional labor markets

    No one is coming to save you, not even Karl or Vladimir Ilyich

    Where are they getting the money now?

    I have yet to see evidence they are even bringing in half what they're spending.

    And yeah, basic trades jobs will always be a thing, but it's going to become a crowded market very very quickly and become one of the lowest paying jobs around as a result.
     

    UnknownOne

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    And the actual Big Mac in Australia?

    What about it? I don't really go to McDonalds so I wouldn't know but a quick google search tells me a big mac here in USA is 3.99. The other day driving past a McDonald's they were advertising NOW HIRING! (almost like they were struggling to find employees ) with a starting wage of like 11 bucks an hour iirc. So... Australia pays their employees approximately 60% more, and charges approximately 60% more for the big mac.

    So, what are you getting at?
     

    Tombs

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    Jan 13, 2011
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    What about it? I don't really go to McDonalds so I wouldn't know but a quick google search tells me a big mac here in USA is 3.99. The other day driving past a McDonald's they were advertising NOW HIRING! (almost like they were struggling to find employees ) with a starting wage of like 11 bucks an hour iirc. So... Australia pays their employees approximately 60% more, and charges approximately 60% more for the big mac.

    So, what are you getting at?

    Minimum wage is $19.86 per hour, and a big mac is $6.60.

    The australian dollar is worth 78 cents.

    Which would make the pay equal to $15.50 usd. And the sandwich $5.15.

    So the sandwich is 30% more expensive while wages are 70% higher. (Assuming the national average of $9 an hour for a mcdonalds employee)
     
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