Risk, And How Humans Deal With It…

[spencer rifle]

If I could summarize the belief system of modern liberalism, it seems to be that Civilization is essentially a risk-mitigation system, and the purpose of living in a civilization is to have access to systems which everyone pays into, and membership in which allows the individual's personal risks and uncertainties of daily life to be mitigated as close to zero as possible.

 

[AtTheMurph]

“The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise.”
― Tacitus

 

[JeepHammer]

Our very own Jetta Knight loves to throw around that humans are bad at assessing risk. On that he and I agree, we just don’t reach the same conclusions. This Ben Shapiro article is certainly interesting on that topic.

“One of their key findings was that human beings are naturally loss-averse — we generally are willing to forego the probability of gains in order to minimize the chance of losses.”

To avoid losing folks were willing to trade independence for masks, shutdowns, and forced vaccination.

“Because of our loss aversion, human beings are also subject to what Kahneman and Tversky label the “planning fallacy”: our self-serving bias toward believing that we are capable of planning for contingency more successfully than we are.”

Yes sir, so many willing to give anything to those that they believe have the answers. They really trust them.

“What if our policymakers aren’t concerned with counterbalancing loss aversion on behalf of more productive risk-taking? What if, instead, our policymakers lie to us, and tell us that risk is no longer necessary at all?”

Talk about confirmation bias!

“As a society, we have become so addicted to the elimination of risk that we are willing to believe any politician who provides us a purported roadmap. A large percentage of the country believes in nearly religious fashion that all risk can be mitigated, so long as we grant the authorities and experts absolute power.”

This is where don’t question the science comes from.

I contend that those clamoring for the vaccine, wanting the force of government to be used against fellow citizens cannot individually assess the danger and just want the risk dealt with by others…

https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-end-of-risk-and-the-end-of-civilization

Risk Assessment:
COVID *CAN* kill you.
COVID *CAN* leave you disabled.

Risk Assessment:
Two vaccines are between 90% and 96% effective.
The serious reaction rate to vaccines are about 1/1,000% the chances of dying from COVID.

Risk Assessment:
Any given person has a 1 in 2 chance of contacting a COVID carrier on any given DAY during upswing,
With vaccine that person has about 1,000% better chance of surviving that contact,
WITH NO SERIOUS SIDE EFFECTS.

No Brainer...

...........

The government has a long standing RIGHT to mandate vaccines & public health matters.
This began shortly after the decloration of indipendence with General Washington mandating vaccines to colonial troops, and on through public works projects including water & sewer projects to curb disease.
This is a given in previous generations that disease is 'Bad' and clean water, sewers to remove disease spreading waste, and vaccines to prevent mass disease was a good thing.

The legal president is clear and older than the Constitution, the government DOES have the right to mandate vaccines in cases of public health concerns.

No question about that, and if you have any questions see the US Supreme Court rulings about that right.

............

That brings us down to personal choices...

If someone CHOSES to ignore 600 or so years of actual scientific accumulated knowledge and rant/rave against vaccines, then there isn't much anyone can do about it.
You do have the right under the Constitution protections to free speech...

..............

I was dumb enough to believe this thread wasn't politically motivated and might actually have some insight into why people made poor choices when it came to Risk/Reward.

Psychological examination WHY people make poor choices... Then defend those poor choices, but I guess not.

 

[Ingomike]

Risk Assessment:
COVID *CAN* kill you.
COVID *CAN* leave you disabled.

All true. but not in numbers significant enough to warrant taking on additional risk to eliminate them.

Case over.

All the rest of your post is risk mitigation based on a faulty evaluation of the first point.

 

[buckwacker]

Risk Assessment:
COVID *CAN* kill you.
COVID *CAN* leave you disabled.

Risk Assessment:
Two vaccines are between 90% and 96% effective.
The serious reaction rate to vaccines are about 1/1,000% the chances of dying from COVID.

Risk Assessment:
Any given person has a 1 in 2 chance of contacting a COVID carrier on any given DAY during upswing,
With vaccine that person has about 1,000% better chance of surviving that contact,
WITH NO SERIOUS SIDE EFFECTS.

No Brainer...

...........

The government has a long standing RIGHT to mandate vaccines & public health matters.
This began shortly after the decloration of indipendence with General Washington mandating vaccines to colonial troops, and on through public works projects including water & sewer projects to curb disease.
This is a given in previous generations that disease is 'Bad' and clean water, sewers to remove disease spreading waste, and vaccines to prevent mass disease was a good thing.

The legal president is clear and older than the Constitution, the government DOES have the right to mandate vaccines in cases of public health concerns.

No question about that, and if you have any questions see the US Supreme Court rulings about that right.

............

That brings us down to personal choices...

If someone CHOSES to ignore 600 or so years of actual scientific accumulated knowledge and rant/rave against vaccines, then there isn't much anyone can do about it.
You do have the right under the Constitution protections to free speech...

..............

I was dumb enough to believe this thread wasn't politically motivated and might actually have some insight into why people made poor choices when it came to Risk/Reward.

Psychological examination WHY people make poor choices... Then defend those poor choices, but I guess not.

The jabs are only 11.9842478976344% effective. 78.4267965346422% of breakthrough cases are jabbed. 83.7532665532568% of deaths are now among the jabbed. 37.659853225789054% of jabbed suffer adverse reactions, 24.874223679996432% die.

 

[JeepHammer]

All true. but not in numbers significant enough to warrant taking on additional risk to eliminate them.

Case over.

All the rest of your post is risk mitigation based on a faulty evaluation of the first point.

You asked about risk assessment.
Less than 1/1,000,000 chance of serious complications from vaccine or break through infection.
Those are pretty good odds.

On the other hand, 1/2 chance of contact with the virus on a daily basis during infection upswings.

Now, since note everyone that is exposed catches the virus,
And since not everyone that catches the virus gets sick enough to seek doctors/hospitals/get tested, the R/O factor is questionable.

I was in the hospital a couple days last week, all but one wing on one floor was COVID patients.
The emergency room is split into about 90% potential COVID cases, 10% injury or other illness.

Even vaccinated staff aren't allowed to mix with people on the COVID side of things.

I hate hospitals, there are sick people there and cross/secondary infection is a very real possibility...
This is the new 'Normal' when hospitals *Should* be dealing with only vaccinated break through infections.

That's where I learned about yet another vairant... Simply because people keep passing it along for more vairants to evolve.

Just kike the experts so many ignored, the longer it rolls around, the more it mutates and the more vairants we will wind up with, the harder it will be to eradicate it...

Welcome to the new 'Normal'.

 

[jake blue]

The legal president is clear and older than the Constitution

I see three inaccuracies in this statement alone.

 

[Ingomike]

the longer it rolls around, the more it mutates and the more vairants we will wind up with, the harder it will be to eradicate it...

Once it existed it will exist in some form forever…

 

[JeepHammer]

Once it existed it will exist in some form forever…

Really?
When was the last case of small pox you know about?

Small pox was the first disease a known vaccine existed for...

How about the 1918 'Spanish Flu'?

No vaccine, but careful quarantine procedures and masks/sanitation stopped & eradicated it.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Really?
When was the last case of small pox you know about?

How about the 1918 'Spanish Flu'?

Well, smallpox was an actual vaccine, with extensive testing, not an MRNA concoction rushed through in a few months.

 

[JeepHammer]

Well, smallpox was an actual vaccine, with extensive testing, not an MRNA concoction rushed through in a few months.

The first vaccine for small pox was infecting people with cow pox, very similar, prevoked an immune reaction and kept people from getting sick/dying when infected with small pox.

That connection was made in the 1400s,
Farm folks that raised cattle and had cow pox didn't get small pox.

Cow pox was the first mandated vaccination in the not yet formed United States, under orders from General Washington.

The back flips in logic don't stand up to actual science...

 

[buckwacker]

Really?
When was the last case of small pox you know about?

Small pox was the first disease a known vaccine existed for...

How about the 1918 'Spanish Flu'?

No vaccine, but careful quarantine procedures and masks/sanitation stopped & eradicated it.

Smallpox is not the same type of virus.

We still have the "Spanish flu" (h1n1), it just doesn't cause the catastrophic problems it did because enough people got it, herd immunity. No it was not eradicated.

 

[Ingomike]

Really?
When was the last case of small pox you know about?

Small pox was the first disease a known vaccine existed for...

How about the 1918 'Spanish Flu'?

No vaccine, but careful quarantine procedures and masks/sanitation stopped & eradicated it.

I guarantee you it still lives on this planet, and it is the height of human arrogance to believe it doesn’t and that we killed it…