Risk, And How Humans Deal With It…

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  • Ingomike

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    Our very own Jetta Knight loves to throw around that humans are bad at assessing risk. On that he and I agree, we just don’t reach the same conclusions. This Ben Shapiro article is certainly interesting on that topic.

    “One of their key findings was that human beings are naturally loss-averse — we generally are willing to forego the probability of gains in order to minimize the chance of losses.”

    To avoid losing folks were willing to trade independence for masks, shutdowns, and forced vaccination.

    “Because of our loss aversion, human beings are also subject to what Kahneman and Tversky label the “planning fallacy”: our self-serving bias toward believing that we are capable of planning for contingency more successfully than we are.”

    Yes sir, so many willing to give anything to those that they believe have the answers. They really trust them.

    “What if our policymakers aren’t concerned with counterbalancing loss aversion on behalf of more productive risk-taking? What if, instead, our policymakers lie to us, and tell us that risk is no longer necessary at all?”

    Talk about confirmation bias!

    “As a society, we have become so addicted to the elimination of risk that we are willing to believe any politician who provides us a purported roadmap. A large percentage of the country believes in nearly religious fashion that all risk can be mitigated, so long as we grant the authorities and experts absolute power.”

    This is where don’t question the science comes from.

    I contend that those clamoring for the vaccine, wanting the force of government to be used against fellow citizens cannot individually assess the danger and just want the risk dealt with by others…

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-end-of-risk-and-the-end-of-civilization
     

    Leadeye

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    I think most folks when the Covid issue got started were scared and risk sensitive as Covid represented the unknown. Big media didn't help matters by rapidly politicizing everything about it, maybe just for clicks/ratings, but the result added an unwelcome dimension to it. From the get go it seemed to me that nobody had a handle on this virus. The stories changed as time went by, instead of leadership just admitting that they were doing what they could, we have the distance/vaccine/booster/mask de jour served up as the next "solution".

    I don't understand how it's gotten to be this quasi religious crusade that it's become, with no less than POTUS denouncing the unvaccinated on national TV as apostates wrecking the economy. Why is it SO important that people get shots 3,4,5 times and whatever leadership has lined up next? What's the hurry, and why?
     

    Ingomike

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    I think most folks when the Covid issue got started were scared and risk sensitive as Covid represented the unknown. Big media didn't help matters by rapidly politicizing everything about it, maybe just for clicks/ratings, but the result added an unwelcome dimension to it. From the get go it seemed to me that nobody had a handle on this virus. The stories changed as time went by, instead of leadership just admitting that they were doing what they could, we have the distance/vaccine/booster/mask de jour served up as the next "solution".

    I don't understand how it's gotten to be this quasi religious crusade that it's become, with no less than POTUS denouncing the unvaccinated on national TV as apostates wrecking the economy. Why is it SO important that people get shots 3,4,5 times and whatever leadership has lined up next? What's the hurry, and why?

    But all of this is because as it unfolded the majority of people were unable to see that the actual outcomes were not the carnage the media played up…
     

    Leadeye

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    But all of this is because as it unfolded the majority of people were unable to see that the actual outcomes were not the carnage the media played up…

    Very true, but the polar ice caps haven't melted even though big media would have you think we are going to see cities submerge in 10 years. There are a lot of people out there hanging on every word NPR says about climate, maybe they just need to have some artificial crisis stalking them. People die of Covid and that's not good, but it's not the modern Black Death. Next 15k stock market crash people will forget about the artificial climate fear, Covid, Michael Meyers, etc., and have something real to pay attention to.

    Artificial crisis do usually have one thing in common...

    ...always follow the money.;)
     

    jake blue

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    I agree that as a species humans are poorly equipped at assessing risk. As a nation we used to be perhaps not better at it but at least more willing to take bigger risks with the potential for big rewards... Not anymore.

    I often use as an example our space program, which raced to the moon for really no more reason than to beat the Russians to it. The space program was exciting and newsworthy until about the time ISS was getting up and running then it became boring because it was just lots of experiments about how various things behave in space. There was no more momentum per se and the timeline for human travel to someplace relatively close like Mars was estimated in decades and trillions of dollars. Why? Because as we learned what it's like to dwell in space, we also learned all the drawbacks and obstacles that must be overcome and contingencies that must be considered. In true government fashion the first Mars colony will likely be a lead bunker with a peephole for the first Martian explorer to look out and say, "yup, it's Mars!" That's what risk analysis gets you.

    Further to that, one of the risk factors calculated in frequent space travel via the space shuttle program (remember those?) was that such a complex machine operating in a (then) unknown environment was estimated would suffer one catastrophic vessel loss per 100 launches. Not to make light of those national tragedies but they were right on the nose if you average the total shuttle missions against shuttle disasters. Yet astronauts were still willing to go to space in those shuttles because for then the risk of 1% was worth the reward of going to space.

    Now we have the billionaire astronaut club and what's really changed? Not much except A) they're footing the bill instead of taxpayers, and B) they're accustomed to the risk-reward paradigm. The average American on the other hand is so risk averse anymore that I see people masked up ALONE IN THEIR OWN CAR! Somewhere along the way we lost our national spine and now we cede the rewards of space exploration to a privileged few and there will be those who whine about that even though they themselves had no skin in the game nor the courage so to do even if they had.

    We need to (re)grow a national spine.
     

    Ingomike

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    Somewhere along the way we lost our national spine and now we cede the rewards of space exploration to a privileged few and there will be those who whine about that even though they themselves had no skin in the game nor the courage so to do even if they had.

    The space “reward” end game is the metals we call rare earth metals in the asteroid belt, so I have read…
     

    wtburnette

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    Nov 11, 2013
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    In regards to the scamdemic, once you understand that masking does nothing, social distancing does nothing and the "vaccine" seems to be pretty ineffective, yet the "people in charge" keep pushing them, it's hard to take them seriously after that. I can only be lied to so much before I start to doubt anything I'm being told. Add in suppression of early treatment of COVID, lack of any possibility of an exemption for natural immunity or health conditions, plus all the rampant censorship and I don't believe anything put out by this administration in regards to COVID. That's what informs my decisions on the matter.
     

    jbombelli

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    May 17, 2008
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    Very true, but the polar ice caps haven't melted even though big media would have you think we are going to see cities submerge in 10 years. There are a lot of people out there hanging on every word NPR says about climate, maybe they just need to have some artificial crisis stalking them. People die of Covid and that's not good, but it's not the modern Black Death. Next 15k stock market crash people will forget about the artificial climate fear, Covid, Michael Meyers, etc., and have something real to pay attention to.

    Artificial crisis do usually have one thing in common...

    ...always follow the money.;)
    I've been following the money my whole life. I just can't seem to ever catch it.
     

    BugI02

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    The space “reward” end game is the metals we call rare earth metals in the asteroid belt, so I have read…
    Those aren't the only ones. An orbital lab can easily be made into the cleanest electronics clean room ever and there are interesting differences in the behavior of materials in zero G that allow for better and more uniform control of doping of electronic materials and the behavior of alloys. It cannot be ruled out that the next generation of electronics might require manufacturing in orbit

    That will make raw materials that don't need to be brought out of the gravity well or more efficient launch methods even more important
     

    Twangbanger

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    One time on CSPAN, I watched a seminar by a Union organizer. He basically told his conference attendees - your first job is to talk to workers and find out what they are AFRAID OF. Once you know that, you control their vote.

    If I could summarize the belief system of modern liberalism, it seems to be that Civilization is essentially a risk-mitigation system, and the purpose of living in a civilization is to have access to systems which everyone pays into, and membership in which allows the individual's personal risks and uncertainties of daily life to be mitigated as close to zero as possible.

    I am afraid of running out of money >>> government retirement system

    I am afraid of my neighbor running out of money, and the consequences of his sh_t life spilling over into mine >>> government welfare system

    I am afraid of not being able to pay for healthcare >>> government healthcare system

    I am afraid of not being able to pay for education >>> free college

    I am a Democrat afraid of being shot by another Democrat >>> Gun Control

    I am afraid of Climate Change >>> climate policy

    I am afraid of COVID >>> ...(this chapter still in progress...)
     

    jake blue

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    To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin, those who value security above liberty deserve neither. That's pretty much been our national trajectory for decades but especially since 9/11.
     
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