Stock market.... What are you doing?

[hoosierdoc]

I was skiing Friday and didn't make any trades. Wish I had, futures are up

 

[zer0day]

Lot of good earnings coming up this week(3/1). Smith and Wesson is on deck for Thursday AH and it wouldn't surprise me to see them beat est's. Pricing and sales are up and transportation costs havent much changed. Raw materials have gone up to coincide with pricing so theres that.
I'm also watching call action on Target, Fubo, Smile Direct Club as well as Kroger and Marvell. Early indications show the group with an average 8% vertical.

A couple under the radar players to get eyes on are Turtle Beach, who makes gaming gear. And Funko, who makes toys.
Funko has slowly doubled since around November and should do well on their earnings based on past performance. Plus they still have a deal in place with DC comics to make a Funko movie.
Turtle Beach has a lot of competition in the space and may not hit numbers. I have been carving out time to watch the video gaming sector to see its growth and the directions its going in. Seeing the playing field, it seems like they may have a hard time hitting the numbers. That shouldn't stop the street from still showing them love.

 

[smokingman]

My morning is not going well. Australia is kicking the crap out of me lol.

Australia doubled bond purchases Friday and again this morning. The 9 billion they spent on their own bonds in that time has "saved the bond market" with the signal the bond crisis is over, all central banks have to do is double and then double again the number of bonds they are buying.

So what the market is saying this morning is "Australia fixed their bonds so the world is saved."

Me being short means I am down 4.77% this morning. SLVP and SLVO are helping me from losing more(I am long those).

I am going to stay short. It would take the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P all hitting new records for me to lose all I have gained in the last 2 weeks. I do not think the bond crisis is really over and if the markets do not correct to reflect some of the reality in the world I would be shocked.

CHCRandy can you buy an ETF? All the ones I listed are ETF bear(short) ones.
To me, it is a glass and it has water in it. It is neither half full or empty. The question is will we drink it until it is gone or add more to it?

 

[smokingman]

3/1/2021

I got the crap kicked out of me today. My total loss stock wise was -7.32%

That was just the start of the beating though.

Corn -1.81%
Wheat -1.5
Sugar -14.5%

I blame Australia(see post above this one).

I also saw a bull in a clown costume as it ran over me.

Do dead cats bounce? I think if you drop it from a helicopter, apparently yes is the answer.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I wondered how you were going to do on such a strong up day.

I'm up 3.75% today which is about half of what it would have been two weeks ago because I have so many fewer plays on. trying to be more cautious.

make $622 on ZM. did an earnings play and it spiked, closed for a profit and did another, and it spiked. I figured it was done moving and closed out, then it popped another 10% AH

 

[smokingman]

Dead cats do not bounce very high though. 3/1/2021...futures just went negative and now seem to be bouncing on the line. US Dollar just hit 91.02 and the 10-year treasury was just stuck today at 1.426(all day and so far after hours).

 

[hoosierdoc]

I don't understand enough to see bond rates and dollar strength as it relates to stocks

 

[smokingman]

I don't understand enough to realize bond rates and dollar strength as it relates to stocks

You have one share of stock worth 100(dollar value).
The dollar value falls to 90, your one share of stock is now worth less than it was UNLESS the stock price increases to 110(so to retain your "wealth" the stock had to go up when priced in dollars).

The pressure on the market is when the dollar falls relative to other currencies for the price per share to increase. It has worked fairly well since 2009. Dollar falls and stocks appear to gain in value. I had a thread on ingo called Stock,Gold,and the printing press. Back in 2012 when it hit 15k on the dow jones,i mentioned we would see 20k soon. We did that,then 30k. Not mostly because anything gained value, but because the dollar is worth less(2% per year by design).

Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

The entire FED central banking model is based on debt creation.If the cost of that debt goes up,less can even afford to borrow. Inflation slows...but debt is still created so the dollar goes down(normally,it did not last Friday and stocks tanked because they saw it as a new event.) It was not. Debt like anything has a capacity that can be managed. Ours(Government,corporate,and individual) are close to that capacity.

The FED wants the dollar down,rates low(so more borrow),and inflation to hit 2% per year. If that happens stocks only go up(in appearance though).

If rates go up,the dollar goes up,and inflation is low stocks will go lower period.

I was watching the 225 just now and US Futures. Markets are down,the dollar is up,and the 10 year is down 1.18%. So a mixed bag. But the rate is still too high for the fed and dollar to cause a rally.

100 year inflation chart for you.

Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

and another to look at especially since 2008

United States Money Supply M0 - September 2023 Data - 1959-2022 Historical

Money Supply M0 in the United States increased to 5559100 USD Million in August from 5517700 USD Million in July of 2023. Money Supply M0 in the United States averaged 1072690.85 USD Million from 1959 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 6413100.00 USD Million in December of 2021 and a...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[smokingman]

Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear ETF(TZA)​

$34.07

+$264.12 (+5,643.59%)

It did a reverse split yesterday. Every 8 shares turned into one share.
I do think that is a personal best for a single day % wise lol.

SQQQ,EDZ,and TZA all were still in the green from my original purchase price even with the market spike higher yesterday.

SDOW,TWM,SPXU are currently in the red from my original purchase price.

It does look like all 6 are up at least 1% pre market on 3/2/2021

10 year is at 1.446 so it rose .02 overnight.
The dollar is still rising in value. Up to 91.16(it was up to 91.48 until China call EU and US markets a bubble this morning).

Futures for the US markets are all negative across the board.

​

 

[NKBJ]

Dead cats do not bounce very high though. 3/1/2021...futures just went negative and now seem to be bouncing on the line. US Dollar just hit 91.02 and the 10-year treasury was just stuck today at 1.426(all day and so far after hours).

Mine's alive and while she lands on her feet, doesn't bounce at all when I throw her across the room onto the bed. Perhaps she is an inverse markets indicator.

Watching the USD rise is fascinating to me; keeping my eye on the ball.

 

[hoosierdoc]

that reverse split doesn't count though as you lost equal shares right?

SOXL did a 15/1 split

I knew in my mind SENS was going to drop after morning spike, and my heart didn't let me sell

 

[smokingman]

Almost made back all my losses from yesterday. Up 11.09% ,but I was down an additional 6.2% pre market(-12.5% total from Friday's close,so another 1.4% and I am back to my high).

Yes I lost shares lol. It was a joke

When you watch the dollar remember to also look at the 10 year. Them moving in one direction together has much more meaning. Up it means deflation of the dollar against other currencies and inflation at home. Down it is lower dollar value against other currency and deflation in the USA.

 

[Hawkeye7br]

Deleted

 

[smokingman]

I am back above my Friday all-time high.

+4.02% today.

Even SDOW finished up .14% I had nothing but SLVO and SLVP negative today. Even DUK was up(which I sold). So all bear and silver now.

SLVO is at $6.51,but it pays very nice dividends($.21 FEB 19th)and pays them monthly which I reinvest in it. It is a cash machine.

Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 21, 2033 (SLVO) Dividend History

www.nasdaq.com

SQQQ was up 9.01%

Futures are down by more than today's total losses,so I am very well positioned for the open.

 

[smokingman]

REPO treasury market just snapped in two. It is beyond broken at the moment with -4% or a full percent below the fail rate.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[rooster]

Hell is coming

 

[smokingman]

The FED is in a corner. If they extend SLR and do more bond purchases they will spark inflation even more. That will lead to them having to raise rates. Which of course is a problem with current debt loads.

If they do not extend SLR banks are suddenly well below capital requirements. All would need to raise money to comply with Frank Dodd. The tbtf banks have less reserves now than they did in 2008,only this time instead of bailing them out the fed wrote SLR and removed reserve requirements.

If they do nothing and stick to their bond-buying at the current rate,the rate on those bonds will continue to climb. They have already stated sticking with purchases until the end of 2021,but the market wants MOAR. If they go longer or bigger,again the inflation spike seen thus far in rates would increase, defeating the purpose of them picking up treasuries in the first place.

All eyes on the FED.

My stocks currently are up around 3% over yesterday's close. What the fed says today is currently more important than any reality for stocks. The fed is the market.

 

[smokingman]

Stocks & Bonds Are Plunging As Powell Fails To Deliver​

No hints at a 'Twist', refuses to speculate on repo issues, no pushback against recent bond vol, and no mention of SLR exemption.

Stocks & Bonds Are Plunging As Powell Fails To Deliver | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

and there you have it. He did not have many options. It was what you would expect from the FED honestly. They are trapped.

Also of note. If we have a real crash the FED is not holding the bag(according to talking heads they are doing everything they can). They really are in a lose lose situation.

 

[rooster]

Stocks & Bonds Are Plunging As Powell Fails To Deliver​

No hints at a 'Twist', refuses to speculate on repo issues, no pushback against recent bond vol, and no mention of SLR exemption.

Stocks & Bonds Are Plunging As Powell Fails To Deliver | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

and there you have it. He did not have many options. It was what you would expect from the FED honestly. They are trapped.

Also of note. If we have a real crash the FED is not holding the bag(according to talking heads they are doing everything they can). They really are in a lose lose situation.

And I say again, hell is coming, a la 1920 Germany or post collapse Russia. We are borderline past how to save your 401k And inching closer to how much long term food storage you have.

 

[smokingman]

I went full bear this morning. No commodities any longer. Not even silver stocks(physical yes).

It seems I positioned myself well the last few weeks. Sorry if you are feeling the pain. I think it gets more interesting/difficult for awhile. I will stay short on everything but the dollar and treasuries(those tips I have been suggesting to buy since 2012 are looking great).

I am going to stop posting my gains. I know it is hard to be on the other side. That said if the markets are red I am doing very well.