Stock market.... What are you doing?

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  • CHCRandy

    Master
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    Don't you have to wait 5 years before you can draw from it?
    I believe so. After 5 years you can take out what you contributed but other than that 59 1/2 years of age. There are other exceptions I think like death, college, house, maybe medical bills, etc.........but I have never looked into what all is covered.

    I do think they allowed people to take it out also in the pandemic.
     

    smokingman

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    Premarket I am up just over 3.3%(edited was only 2.8%)
    Even my SLV and SLVO are up.
    The stand out though is SQQQ up just over 4.6%

    WOW. EDZ is up over 8% pre market.

    I will check in around 10am and again shortly before close. Off to finish this bath remodel. I have tile(tub and floor),touch up paint,mirror to hang,lighting to install,and trim left to do. oh,and new water lines to run for the vanity,the tub got PEX hot and cold lines yesterday. Running water is a beautiful thing.
     
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    rooster

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    lots of tech earnings coming out this week. should be exciting!
    I’m more interested in what Jpow has to say tomorrow. Also closely watching yields to see if the supply demand on treasuries keeps pushing yields up.

    Admittedly I don’t fully understand it all but it looks to me like we are teetering on the brink of a large correction with treasuries being the catalyst
     

    smokingman

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    2.
    I’m more interested in what Jpow has to say tomorrow. Also closely watching yields to see if the supply demand on treasuries keeps pushing yields up.

    Admittedly I don’t fully understand it all but it looks to me like we are teetering on the brink of a large correction with treasuries being the catalyst

    22.8 trillion in outstanding US Treasuries(without the current stimulus).

    An average of 70 billion of that is traded every day. A 0.1% increase in the rate makes borrowing more costly. I suspect they will let them rise on their own for some time(it does cause inflation which is the main stated goal of the fed). In short, the FED has no reason to lower the rates during Q1, but we will see tomorrow.

    It impacts markets in many ways. Borrowing money costs more(think 100s of billions not millions). That impacts every company that borrows money(most of them), even the FED REPO window cost more for "market makers(Banks)".

    Stocks will likely respond by going down, BUT I did notice premarket today the dollar was sliding which is lessening losses. A strong dollar will increase the losses, a weak dollar is actually supportive of stocks. So if the dollar had stayed the same as it was Friday instead of dropping 0.4% the markets would be down at least another 0.4%. I lost a full % on my portfolio when the dollar dropped from -.38 to -.4% So the losses likely would have been greater than the .4%

    I am not an investment adviser and this is just my 2 cents.
     
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    rooster

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    Stocks will likely respond by going down, BUT I did notice premarket today the dollar was sliding which is lessening losses. A strong dollar will increase the losses, a weak dollar is actually supportive of stocks.
    Right devaluing the dollar is continuing to push equities to ATH and my concern is that inflation is already happening the gov is just pretending not to notice. Real cost of goods is rising dramatically.

    this story is what started me down the rabbit hole. Spoos are all on a tear and that increased cost for wheat, corn, cattle will trickle down to the consumer very shortly. My gut feeling is that long term supplier contracts are the only thing that has kept prices in check so far.
     

    smokingman

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    Nov 11, 2008
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    SLVP +7.8%
    SLVO +2.1%
    TZA +1.39%
    SPXU +2.53%
    SQQQ +7.51%
    EDZ +9.43%
    TWM +1.08%

    DUK -.09%
    SDOW -.79%

    Overall a gain of 4.48% for me on the day.

    Tile is almost all cut(grinder and breaker combined). I should have it all cut today. Back to work.
     
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    NKBJ

    at the ark
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    Hi there.
    I just dropped by to read through and see if yall think the markets are becoming righteously worrisome yet.
     

    NKBJ

    at the ark
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    Yeah, me too. Things are moving fast.
    Looking up ahead, have some decisions to make now.
    Jack Elam 4.jpg
     

    smokingman

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    Looks like post and premarket I am up 3.53% over yesterday's close.

    10 year US treasuries are 1.379% (+.73%)

    The dollar index is up above 90 (+.16%)

    Looks like I am well positioned for the day. Back to tile.
    Be well.

    Up 4.46% at the opening bell...now i really need to get tile done.0


    10:51 am 2/23/2020 Someone(FED likely)stepped in and purchased around 50 billion in US Treasuries in the last hour.

    The 10 year is down 1.64% currently to 1.34%.
    If you noticed market losses halved, still negative but not nearly as much.

     
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    smokingman

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    today was bad. I had to close things because of margin situation. had planned to reduce positions but never did. nuts
    SDOW hurt me a bit today(again).

    I ended the day up .5%(I did have a nice 3.5% gain pre market so 4% roughly on the day). after the hit on treasuries. Prior to noon I was up close to 8%.

    Still holding my portfolio. I do not think this is over by a long ways,and expect more selling. Holding anything not short going into the weekend is probably a bad idea. I know it is just Tuesday,but fear is taking hold. It is always a bad idea to be long over the weekend when that happens in general.
     

    smokingman

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    Wednesday I was down .48%

    Today I am currently up 5.61%

    Treasuries are up 9.3% with the 10 year at 1.518%( a 1 year high).
    The dollar regained earlier losses and is back above 90 at 90.11

    DOW -1.4%
    S&P -2.06
    NASDAQ -2.87%

    I will likely do well going into the weekend. I will see where things look next Tuesday before making any changes.

    2/25/2021 3pm

    4:01pm I was up 7.09%(and 3% premarket). So just over 10% on the day. I suspect Friday could be more of the same.

    My best performer today was TZA up over 11%
    SQQQ a close second up 10.61%

    The 7 year US Treasury auction came closer than any in history to failing(ie no one buying US Government debt). It was the worst auction ever, and we are talking since 1929.


     
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    CHCRandy

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    Terrible last week of the month for me. I got slaughtered in a TSLA options trade Friday for icing on the cake. I made 50% each on trading it twice, 3rd time I got greedy and went big, lost 100% of what I made and many thousand additional! The bad part is I had a chance to get out with 20% loss and didnt sell them, then lost it all. Ruined my week, month and weekend! Now I must revenge trade it.

    Started week up almost 40% for the year, finished this week and the month up about 25-30% for year I reckon. Lost at least 10% of my portfolio last week on ADXS and TSLA.......so sick I have not even figured out my loss % for month.

    Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery and today is a gift so we call it a present. Life rolls on. Believe it and achieve it. I will come out fighting at 7am.........
     

    hoosierdoc

    Freed prisoner
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    was a good week to be short for sure!

    but I was short long positions :dunno:

    SENS smoked me. my margin problems caused me to lock in a lot of losses. ugh.
     

    CHCRandy

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    was a good week to be short for sure!

    but I was short long positions :dunno:

    SENS smoked me. my margin problems caused me to lock in a lot of losses. ugh.
    Yeah, I know many people blew up accounts last week. All the meme millionaires are now broke. I never use margin....I don't think I can in a Roth account. I can't short either in Roth account......unless I buy puts.

    Hope this week is better. I mean, the economy is gonna get stronger I think. Covid is done for most part, herd immunity has taken over...imho. Unemployment should drop, schools should open, travel is starting up, casinos and parks opening, cruises, theatres, summer coming, people are ready to work and spend and get back to normal!

    I know we will have financial hell to pay eventually.....but there are a lot of things to be positive about. To me the glass is always half full.
     
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