Random violence stats I've compiled

[Tsssst]

Thank you for the private message, NHT. I tried to reply but I'm only at 20-something posts so it wouldn't let me.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

BBI, what are your classes people in this thread keep mentioning? I'm in Indy too.

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...e-concepts-double-header-april-28-2018-a.html

This Saturday is full, I figure Coach will start registering for the fall class closer to the date.

I'm also available for other hosts and can tailor a program based on what you need. Note I do not teach fundamentals of marksmanship, basic safety, etc. type courses. My classes are for people who are already passably familiar with the safe operation of a handgun. I do situational awareness, decision making under stress, tactics, etc.

 

[T.Lex]

Heya BBI,

Total anecdote here, but it seems like I've noticed more coverage in Indy where the camera zooms in on a casing on the ground. More often, now, it seems like it is a rifle cartridge.

Is there an uptick in the prevalence of rifles in the violence? And does that modality have any impact (pardon the pun) on the self defense stats?

Thx.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Heya BBI,

Total anecdote here, but it seems like I've noticed more coverage in Indy where the camera zooms in on a casing on the ground. More often, now, it seems like it is a rifle cartridge.

Is there an uptick in the prevalence of rifles in the violence? And does that modality have any impact (pardon the pun) on the self defense stats?

Thx.

Anecdotally, yes. Rifles and the "pistol-rifle" things. However the crimes they are being used in are not part of my stats as they are not random.

 

[T.Lex]

Anecdotally, yes. Rifles and the "pistol-rifle" things. However the crimes they are being used in are not part of my stats as they are not random.

Well then. IMHO that's a good thing.

Uh... if... uh... that changes, in terms of rifles translating over to random victim type events... uh... can you let us know?

I mean, I'm not sure that would change anything for me personally, but it would be an important data point, even if just anecdotal.

 

[dudley0]

But my plate carrier is so heavy when loaded down... I hope they stick to the handguns... unless they can switch up to nerf bats... that would fit better for me.

 

[Brad69]

BBI
Did you ever break down what ammo used the incidents you track?
If so did it make a notable difference?

 

[BehindBlueI's]

BBI
Did you ever break down what ammo used the incidents you track?
If so did it make a notable difference?

Sort of, with many caveats. Often we don't know exact type of ammo was used. I might know "ball" but not know brand. I might know the head stamp, I might not. I might have the box and know exactly what kind of ammo. Thugs have been known to just whatever's available in a gun and have different brands, a mixture of HP and ball, and in revolvers even a mixture of .38 and .357 in the same magazine/cylinder.

Then you add in a host of variables of shot placement, physical size of the attacker, presence of intermediate barriers, etc. What you end up with is more trends than specific percentages. IMO, the most valid way to compare ammo differences in the real world is when a particular unit or department switches ammo and nothing else. Then when you've accumulated a large amount of shootings, you can eliminate most variables. The same level of training, same types of engagements, etc.

So, to answer your question, many times ammo selection does not matter in the slightest. The bad guy flees either at the sight of the gun or the sound of the discharge (defender misses but the opponent flees anyway). A starter pistol could win those fights.

As you climb the difficulty of the problem to solve, you start to see some differences. Needing to shoot through your own car window, facing a more dedicated attacker, having to shoot an a person that the vitals are concealed (ie, fighting around cover and you can't see the torso but may have a thigh shot you can take).

Based on broad trends:

.22 and .25 suck, even for psychological stops. They can be fatal, but people often don't realize they are hit or think it's a pellet gun. Penetration sucks, bone deflection is prominent, bones don't break. They also tend to be the least consistent. Same gun, same ammo, penetrates a female's skull but fails to penetrate male's skull in an execution style shooting, etc. Intermediate barriers defeat them, including heavy clothing, glass, etc. Bleeding is minimal, doctors often don't remove the projectile.

.32 is a decent suicide gun and penetrates skulls more reliably. Still has trouble breaking most bones.

.380 ball works reasonably well. It's not fast enough to break itself apart, so it retains weight. It can break any bone in the adult body, but doesn't have much left after breaking a femur. It gets through auto glass ok. A hot .380 that can retain weight has a lot of penetration, like through and through a fat guy's torso type of penetration.

9mm/.40/.45 in quality bonded ammo all perform so close to the same as to be impossible to suss out. Dipping into cheap ammo, you see differences. Cheap 9mm ball bullets, especially when driven fast, can break apart. 115gr ball is arguable worse than the equivalent .380 ball for intermediate barriers because it has enough energy to break itself apart and fragment, whereas the .380 stays whole. The flat nose .40 seems to deflect less and also over penetrates pretty often. .45 is the best if you want to run cheap ammo, it's like a bigger .380 in that it's too slow to tear itself apart and even if it sheds it's jacket it retains a lot of mass.

Lightweight/fast bullets fragment early, or expand so quickly and violently they break apart, and end up making shallow but messy wounds. They look bad, but they aren't getting into the vitals. I had an elementary school age child accidentally shoot herself with one of the super-fast ultra light 9mm rounds at near contact distance and her forearm bone (forget if it was radius or ulna) stopped it. Messy, but shallow.

.44 hot loads over penetrate, cowboy loads under penetrate.

.357 magnum still works just fine, but ball can over penetrate a LOT. It also makes for spectacular suicides. If you ever want to blow some of your teeth through the back of your skull, a .357 is a good option.

Rifles are worth it. Soft point 5.56 is very effective.

Shotguns are worth it when buckshot is used. Birdshot makes a connect-the-dots under the skin. Buckshot makes serious injuries.

IMO, a heavy for caliber bonded bullet in a common duty caliber remains the best choice for handguns. There's a reason professional fighting forces consistently choose these types of bullets. In both testing and real world results, they consistently out perform any other option in a wide variety of scenarios. Shotguns, plated buckshot (which resists deformation) that patterns well and consistently in your shotgun. Rifles, not really my wheelhouse outside of the aforementioned 5.56.

I also suspect, but can't prove, that noise and muzzle flash influence psychological stops. I think that's most of the reputation of .357 Magnum and .357 Sig, the wounds themselves aren't any different. Loud noises and bright flashes are more impressive and are emotionally associated with more power. Again, this is speculative on my end and I've no idea how you could control enough variables to actually prove it.

 

[T.Lex]

That is an outstanding post! You've gotta be close to 50 soon....

 

[churchmouse]

That is an outstanding post! You've gotta be close to 50 soon....

upon review he has 2 to go until his "Quality" 50

 

[T.Lex]

upon review he has 2 to go until his "Quality" 50

I long for the day I'm that close....

 

[IndyTom]

I long for the day I'm that close....

You're not doing yourself any favors with these one-liners.

The presented information was also helpful in that I can now back burner my quest for an appropriate shoulder (or thigh?) rig for a Desert Eagle and stick with quality ammo in a 9mm...for now.

 

[T.Lex]

You're not doing yourself any favors with these one-liners.

 

[Brad69]

Thanks for the info BBI looks like it’s going to be a record year in your line of work !

I had a old timer Deputy that carried a S&W M29 6 inch tell me that the blast scared most people into giving up !
He also said nickel plated pistols seemed to intimidate bad guys more?

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Thanks for the info BBI looks like it’s going to be a record year in your line of work !

I had a old timer Deputy that carried a S&W M29 6 inch tell me that the blast scared most people into giving up !
He also said nickel plated pistols seemed to intimidate bad guys more?

I've never tracked finishes. I wonder how Sig Rainbow Bright does? I will tell you that people staring down the barrel of a revolver can often remember what color and type the bullets were in the cylinder.

Anecdotally, I think the blast does matter, but like I said I can't prove it. And, of course, blast works both ways and hearing loss/tinnitus isn't much fun.

 

[eldirector]

I've never tracked finishes. I wonder how Sig Rainbow Bright does? I will tell you that people staring down the barrel of a revolver can often remember what color and type the bullets were in the cylinder.

Anecdotally, I think the blast does matter, but like I said I can't prove it. And, of course, blast works both ways and hearing loss/tinnitus isn't much fun.

One of my favorite backgrounds:

 

[Thor]

And, of course, blast works both ways and hearing loss/tinnitus isn't much fun.

What? And the hits (ringing) just keep on coming...24/7/365. Man I wish they had electronic hearing protection when I was in the military...every day I wish that...haven't found my magic lamp yet though.

 

[nathantwilson]

This information is very useful. Thank you so much for taking the time to compile this. It definitely speaks towards the importance of situational awareness as well as having a practiced plan (carry on person, no safety = train regularly).

 

[downrange72]

This is a great start. I'll be tagging this to follow as data builds.

I see a departmental power point in your future

I imagine this could be extrapolated out to the nth degree to create a massive wormhole of 'what ifs'

 

[Dingleberry]

Cool thread OP. Consistent with what I've read.....zero reloads from the first page.