Big Calibers work better?

[BehindBlueI's]

On these charts, you have to take 10MM with a grain of salt.

With 10MM you have low spec (might as well be 40S&W), and high spec (the original loading).

Still the good thing is, ether seems to work pretty well.

Also that sample size on that study, is way too damn small.

FWIW, I initially tried to track caliber and fatal/non-fatal shootings. I rapidly discovered that there are so many variables that it's largely a fool's errand without massive amounts of data, and even then it's a tough thing. 2 shootings is laughably stupid to even include.

Some variables are immediately obvious, such as where on the body the person is hit. Nobody who's not, again, laughably stupid, disputes there is no difference between a 9mm in the brain stem vs a .44 magnum in the brain stem. Both are instant bang-flops. Other variables are less obvious but become more clear as you actually work these cases. More people the police shoot survive, all things being equal (which they never are, but play along) because *they are immediately known to be shot and will get medical treatment sooner*. A broken ankle in the city is no big deal. A broken ankle in the desert a 3 day hike to a cell phone signal can be a death sentence. Gunshots are no different, people sometimes die from survivable injuries had they had faster or better access to medical care. Rural hospital with little trauma experience vs major metropolitan hospital who deals with trauma daily? Common sense which has better survival rates. We know which hospitals people shot walk out of at much higher rates even within the county. If I'm shot, take me to Eskenazi. I don't care if you drive past 4 other hospitals, take me to Eskenazi. What's that mean for these sorts of studies? Whatever caliber police are using will have artificially high survival rates comparatively based on immediate first aid, rapid access to advanced medical care, and transportation directly to a trauma center.

Where people shot directly or through intermediate barriers? If they were shot through, say, auto glass, was the bullet a bonded quality hollowpoint? A monolithic copper? A bulk jacketed soft lead? If it's going through glass first that matters way more than caliber.

The absolute best metrics you can get are large police departments who transition calibers. You can eliminate or reduce a lot of variables, since training and hit rates and hit locations should be roughly the same, access to medical care roughly the same, etc. Then get multi-year data and compare. That data has been pretty consistently showing that there is no discernible difference in common duty calibers. Now, you don't get to see much data outside the Holy Trinity of 9mm, .40S&W, and .45 Auto from those numbers for the obvious reasons.


People who are just running numbers who don't know what they don't know end up with useless take-aways.

 

[led4thehed2]

FWIW, I initially tried to track caliber and fatal/non-fatal shootings. I rapidly discovered that there are so many variables that it's largely a fool's errand without massive amounts of data, and even then it's a tough thing. 2 shootings is laughably stupid to even include.

Some variables are immediately obvious, such as where on the body the person is hit. Nobody who's not, again, laughably stupid, disputes there is no difference between a 9mm in the brain stem vs a .44 magnum in the brain stem. Both are instant bang-flops. Other variables are less obvious but become more clear as you actually work these cases. More people the police shoot survive, all things being equal (which they never are, but play along) because *they are immediately known to be shot and will get medical treatment sooner*. A broken ankle in the city is no big deal. A broken ankle in the desert a 3 day hike to a cell phone signal can be a death sentence. Gunshots are no different, people sometimes die from survivable injuries had they had faster or better access to medical care. Rural hospital with little trauma experience vs major metropolitan hospital who deals with trauma daily? Common sense which has better survival rates. We know which hospitals people shot walk out of at much higher rates even within the county. If I'm shot, take me to Eskenazi. I don't care if you drive past 4 other hospitals, take me to Eskenazi. What's that mean for these sorts of studies? Whatever caliber police are using will have artificially high survival rates comparatively based on immediate first aid, rapid access to advanced medical care, and transportation directly to a trauma center.

Where people shot directly or through intermediate barriers? If they were shot through, say, auto glass, was the bullet a bonded quality hollowpoint? A monolithic copper? A bulk jacketed soft lead? If it's going through glass first that matters way more than caliber.

The absolute best metrics you can get are large police departments who transition calibers. You can eliminate or reduce a lot of variables, since training and hit rates and hit locations should be roughly the same, access to medical care roughly the same, etc. Then get multi-year data and compare. That data has been pretty consistently showing that there is no discernible difference in common duty calibers. Now, you don't get to see much data outside the Holy Trinity of 9mm, .40S&W, and .45 Auto from those numbers for the obvious reasons.


People who are just running numbers who don't know what they don't know end up with useless take-aways.

I've told you this in person, but I'll say it again; thank you for applying scientific principles to studying gunshot wounds. Almost no one does. My thanks.

 

[Basher]

FWIW, I initially tried to track caliber and fatal/non-fatal shootings. I rapidly discovered that there are so many variables that it's largely a fool's errand without massive amounts of data, and even then it's a tough thing. 2 shootings is laughably stupid to even include.

Some variables are immediately obvious, such as where on the body the person is hit. Nobody who's not, again, laughably stupid, disputes there is no difference between a 9mm in the brain stem vs a .44 magnum in the brain stem. Both are instant bang-flops. Other variables are less obvious but become more clear as you actually work these cases. More people the police shoot survive, all things being equal (which they never are, but play along) because *they are immediately known to be shot and will get medical treatment sooner*. A broken ankle in the city is no big deal. A broken ankle in the desert a 3 day hike to a cell phone signal can be a death sentence. Gunshots are no different, people sometimes die from survivable injuries had they had faster or better access to medical care. Rural hospital with little trauma experience vs major metropolitan hospital who deals with trauma daily? Common sense which has better survival rates. We know which hospitals people shot walk out of at much higher rates even within the county. If I'm shot, take me to Eskenazi. I don't care if you drive past 4 other hospitals, take me to Eskenazi. What's that mean for these sorts of studies? Whatever caliber police are using will have artificially high survival rates comparatively based on immediate first aid, rapid access to advanced medical care, and transportation directly to a trauma center.

Where people shot directly or through intermediate barriers? If they were shot through, say, auto glass, was the bullet a bonded quality hollowpoint? A monolithic copper? A bulk jacketed soft lead? If it's going through glass first that matters way more than caliber.

The absolute best metrics you can get are large police departments who transition calibers. You can eliminate or reduce a lot of variables, since training and hit rates and hit locations should be roughly the same, access to medical care roughly the same, etc. Then get multi-year data and compare. That data has been pretty consistently showing that there is no discernible difference in common duty calibers. Now, you don't get to see much data outside the Holy Trinity of 9mm, .40S&W, and .45 Auto from those numbers for the obvious reasons.


People who are just running numbers who don't know what they don't know end up with useless take-aways.

100%. A LOT of people would benefit from familiarizing themselves with the work of Doc Martin Fackler, DocGKR, and a few others who’ve compiled significant amounts of data on terminal ballistics.

 

[Brad69]

I would like BBI to teach classes again!

Learned a lot from the well dressed man!

 

[Bassat]

C'mon guys (gals?)! Read the study. Pay particular attention to TABLE 1 on page 5/10. Roughly 80% of fatal and non fatal wounds are related to drug/gang activity. The conclusion clearly states that duty (my term) calibers are more deadly than mouse (my term) calibers. Seems to me that Boston's drug/gang activity would be greatly reduced if we could improve the effectiveness of the criminals' weaponry. How many of these victims would be moved from non-fatal to fatal categories if these drug dealers would stop shooting each other with .25 acp, .32 acp, and would just man-up to .40 and .45. Non-fatal drug/gang shootings leave us/me/you paying for hospital bills for one party, and courts/jail for the other party. Let them kill each other. Less expensive.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

Who hurt you, child?

Nobody, cause I was carrying a snubby revolver.

 

[bgcatty]

There is no replacement for displacement when it comes to horsepower in cars and I believe the same goes for heavy caliber handguns. My !

 

[ECS686]

A test bed coming up is Terre Haute PD THPD has used 45 caliber Glocks with 230gr Gold Dots since 2010 ish. Out of the 7 or 8 shootings with the 45 6 or so have been fatal (one non fatal was an arm hit one was a torso in a vehicle not sure if glass was involved)

THPD is going to Glock 9mm (supposedly Model 45 in 9mm) and with (again supposedly 124 gr Gold Dots)

So when they get up to 7 or 8 shootings we will have an apples to apples comparison of large vs small service calibers.

As for myself I like 45 and I like 9. I have seen a ton of Federal inmates walking around that survived what should have been mortal hits from everything (9mm 40 10mm 45 5.55 7.62 both Russian and Winchester) As a Municipal LE I was on seen after a suspect got center punched with a 45 and was talking fine other than out of breath when the officer that shot him had him in cuffs.

So what I have learned you can have the most effective round in the world of duty guns but 2 things people forget. 1 Murphy's Law and 2 Real Thugs don’t read gel tests and don’t know you have the latest wonder bullet. They don’t think like you do as Dave Spaulding says!

 

[Expat]

I have learned much from the INGO over the years. The 9mm is a magical cartridge. It hits the exact trade off of speed and size to make it the most lethal.
Also, anything bigger than 9mm hurts my hand so 9mm must be the best.

 

[Bassat]

An addendum, if you please, to the 'bigger is better' discussion. I use a Glock 21 Gen 4 stoked with 230gr HST as a house gun. Why? Because it is the largest handgun/largest bullet I can shoot accurately and quickly. My EDC is a Sig P365 (365XL if I ever get to test the darn thing). Why? Because it is the largest, highest capacity gun I can CARRY comfortably, and shoot accurately and quickly. I also throw a Keltec P32 in my pocket from time to time. Why? Because it is the largest gun I am willing to carry in this manner. The 'bigger is better' discussion applies to all 3 of them, for different reasons.

 

[tgeorge21]

Listen we all just need to carry 6 and half inch 357 polished stainless steel revolvers. problem solved.

 

[ECS686]

Listen we all just need to carry 6 and half inch 357 polished stainless steel revolvers. problem solved.

 

[Amishman44]

A test bed coming up is Terre Haute PD THPD has used 45 caliber Glocks with 230gr Gold Dots since 2010 ish. Out of the 7 or 8 shootings with the 45 6 or so have been fatal (one non fatal was an arm hit one was a torso in a vehicle not sure if glass was involved)

THPD is going to Glock 9mm (supposedly Model 45 in 9mm) and with (again supposedly 124 gr Gold Dots)

So when they get up to 7 or 8 shootings we will have an apples to apples comparison of large vs small service calibers.

As for myself I like 45 and I like 9. I have seen a ton of Federal inmates walking around that survived what should have been mortal hits from everything (9mm 40 10mm 45 5.55 7.62 both Russian and Winchester) As a Municipal LE I was on seen after a suspect got center punched with a 45 and was talking fine other than out of breath when the officer that shot him had him in cuffs.

So what I have learned you can have the most effective round in the world of duty guns but 2 things people forget. 1 Murphy's Law and 2 Real Thugs don’t read gel tests and don’t know you have the latest wonder bullet. They don’t think like you do as Dave Spaulding says!

I used to be a 'bigger is better' when it came to defensive calibers, and have been (and still am) a huge fan of the .357 magnum (and .357SIG) calibers for home and personal defense.
That being said, 9mm has come a long way since 2020 (when a lot of the improvements to the caliber started to occur) and which was why .40 S&W became so popular and .45 acp held on for so long was because of marked differences between them and 9mm.
In 2010-12, 9mm really seemed to start turning the corner when it came to improvements in bullet design and performance, making it more of an 'adequate' personal defense caliber than a 'sub-par' personal defense caliber.
Even I have started carrying 9mm as a personal defense caliber, not because I am drawn to it but because of being able to match what the wife is comfortable with, when it comes to carrying the same caliber and magazine...easier for me to drop down to her comfort level than expect her to come up to mine (when it comes to caliber and felt recoil.)
In the right length barrel, there are considerations for heavier bullets, not necessarily larger bullets, when it comes to overall penetration depths, but that's still secondary to bullet placement when it comes to self-defense.
When it comes to self-defense calibers, 9mm really is the median caliber, with advantages and disadvantages, across the board, when it comes to sliding scale of smaller vs larger calibers. Every time one switches calibers, or even bullet weights (grain) for that matter, there are tradeoffs for what one gets when it comes to penetration aspects (barriers, velocity, barrel length, etc.), but that still does not replace the number one most important aspect with personal defense, shot placement.
That being said, I did pick up a Glock model 45 about 2 years ago, a 'refurbished' model that didn't appear to have ever been fired that still had the Glock 'copper' lubricant smeared around under the slide. I as actually impressed with the accuracy and smoothness with which it shot, as well as the overall comfort with the Gen 5 full-sized (smaller) grip with no finger bumps.
That being said, I did find that the pistol prefers 124 grain HST's and Speer Gold Dots for accuracy and felt recoil, but it does well with both 115 and 147 grain bullets as well.
In the end, do I consider 9mm to be an 'adequate' home and personal defense caliber, Yes.
Do I still prefer a larger caliber pistol for EDC, Yes.
Is 9mm 'better' than all other calibers...Nope, not at all as I would never even consider taking a 9mm while out hiking.
I say, shoot / carry / use what you are comfortable with...and then train regularly!
Stop with all the 'mine is better' crap...it's all in the shooter, not the caliber anyhow!
Consider one's environment, and potential adversaries...for example, I would never carry a 9mm on a hiking trip where I might encounter bears (or moose for that matter)...that's where the .454 Casull comes in handy, because then, at least I would have a fighting chance...and from a revolver nonetheless!

 

[hoosiersasquatch]

One must have their firearm available to use it
One must be able to hit their target for it to be effective
Better to hit your target with a smaller caliber than miss with a large one
Carry what you feel comfortable with using and practice

 

[45sRfun]

One must have their firearm available to use it
One must be able to hit their target for it to be effective
Better to hit your target with a smaller caliber than miss with a large one
Carry what you feel comfortable with using and practice

And better the smaller gun you have with you, than the gun you don't have with you because it is too big to conveniently carry all the time.