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    nonobaddog

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    Here's what Indiana hospitalization outcomes look like, both since March 1 and since August 1. I tend to discount the early data relative to percents of COVID+ cases since testing was so scarce early on. I know people in early July who got tests approved because they had flown to other states, so July is probably valid also, but prior to that, I think there is just too much unknown from lack of testing capacity/availability.

    View attachment 120787

    View attachment 120788

    Not sure how the hospital mortality relates to the metrics you quoted.

    There seems to be something wrong with their numbers.
    I do not believe that the recovery numbers are identical for those different time periods.
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    There seems to be something wrong with their numbers.
    I do not believe that the recovery numbers are identical for those different time periods.
    You are right... I looked at the percentages and thought is was odd, but now that you mention it the numbers are the same too, which is unpossible. Looks like their dashboard did not accept the custom date range for that metric. I went back and put in a number of different start dates, all the same.

    I submitted a bug report on their site.
     

    ws6guy

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    If the trend continues go do downward, what has Indiana done to cause this trend? Just by my casual observation, peoples behavior hasn't changed much if any in the last few months.
     

    nonobaddog

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    If the trend continues go do downward, what has Indiana done to cause this trend? Just by my casual observation, peoples behavior hasn't changed much if any in the last few months.

    Yup, Minnesota seems to be well past the peak of the second wave with numbers of cases, hospitalizations, ICU populations and deaths all going down significantly. All this with no apparent change in what people are doing - if anything people have become more relaxed with regard to mitigating behavior.

    Sometimes it seems like the effectiveness of all the actions taken and all the government mandates and restrictions are highly over-rated.
     

    T.Lex

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    I readily (and often) concede that there's alot we don't know about how this virus is transmitted.

    I do feel like, as sensible midwesterners, we generally do rational things. After the spike around Thanksgiving (it actually started before that), I think people really toned it down during Christmas and New Years.

    But, yeah, at the end of the day, I have no idea and I'm not sure the experts really do either.

    This is one of the situations, though, where doing something (or trying to do something) seems to make more sense than doing nothing.
     

    BugI02

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    You are right... I looked at the percentages and thought is was odd, but now that you mention it the numbers are the same too, which is unpossible. Looks like their dashboard did not accept the custom date range for that metric. I went back and put in a number of different start dates, all the same.

    I submitted a bug report on their site.
    I have an alibi
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    If the trend continues go do downward, what has Indiana done to cause this trend? Just by my casual observation, peoples behavior hasn't changed much if any in the last few months.
    Sure they have:

    1. Late September, full Phase 5 re-opening, restaurants and bars 100% capacity and other increases in large gatherings. (upward exponential started)

    2. Mid-November, re-opening roll-back to Phase 3/4, 25%/50% capacity (halted upward acceleration, cases peaked, decaying exponential started)

    3. Thanksgiving gatherings (one time surge over the decaying exponential)

    4. Christmas gatherings (one time surge over the decaying exponential)

    In the past 3 1/2 months there have been four mass changes in behavior in Indiana, each readily reflected as real world changes in infection rate R0.

    R0 is a rate, folks. Increased R0 is an acceleration, decreased R0 is a deceleration. There is no "instant" start or stop.
     

    nonobaddog

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    You seem to have cherry picked your events well.

    1. May 25, Memorial Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    2. July 4, Independence Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    3. July 27, mask mandate, little to no effect on anything

    4. September 7, Labor Day gatherings, no spike in anything
     
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    SheepDog4Life

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    You seem to have cherry picked your events well.

    1. May 25, Memorial Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    2. July 4, Independence Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    3. July 27, mask mandate, little to no effect on anything

    4. September 7, Labor Day gatherings, no spike in anything
    Indoor gatherings vs outdoor gatherings.

    Night and day!

    And... regarding the mask mandate... where the virus was present in numbers, folks were huge majority already wearing masks prior to the mandate. Where it wasn't, people didn't start wearing them due to the mandate. I've seen and reported on this extensively in my part of the state and the states I've traveled to... the "mandate" itself is hot-air.
     

    jamil

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    You seem to have cherry picked your events well.

    1. May 25, Memorial Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    2. July 4, Independence Day gatherings, no spike in anything

    3. July 27, mask mandate, little to no effect on anything

    4. September 7, Labor Day gatherings, no spike in anything
    Possibly it could be the types of gatherings. Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, those are all outdoor gatherings during a time when the sun is at an angle that would tend to make sunlight an excellent disinfectant. During the winter months, if you're north of a certain parallel (don't remember where, and don't feel like looking it up) the sunlight isn't all that disinfecting. And in the winter gatherings, people are indoors more.
     

    jamil

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    Indoor gatherings vs outdoor gatherings.

    Night and day!

    And... regarding the mask mandate... where the virus was present in numbers, folks were huge majority already wearing masks prior to the mandate. Where it wasn't, people didn't start wearing them due to the mandate. I've seen and reported on this extensively in my part of the state and the states I've traveled to... the "mandate" itself is hot-air.
    Even if they were outdoor gatherings, the sun isn't very effective in winter months. But, perhaps the spikes have more to do with things like that than masks. And like I've said, I think masks are somewhat effective. But I don't pray to them for protection like some folks seem to.
     

    nonobaddog

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    To simply say those are "outdoor" gatherings is simplistic and ignores the many indoor parts of those holiday gatherings. The travel, non-grill food preparation, cramming into cars to go see fireworks etc, moving inside after dark, sleeping arrangements, etc. Some places it was raining - I guarantee it.
     

    jamil

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    To simply say those are "outdoor" gatherings is simplistic and ignores the many indoor parts of those holiday gatherings. The travel, non-grill food preparation, cramming into cars to go see fireworks etc, moving inside after dark, sleeping arrangements, etc. Some places it was raining - I guarantee it.
    Sure. But it's not like Holiday gatherings where families get together for a few days and are inside the whole time.

    It sums, the opportunities to get infected vs the things that tend to hurt those opportunities. In the summer, especially in summer events, I think would tend to limit opportunities to get infected. It's part of the reason flu season isn't in the summer months.
     

    nonobaddog

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    Sure. But it's not like Holiday gatherings where families get together for a few days and are inside the whole time.

    It sums, the opportunities to get infected vs the things that tend to hurt those opportunities. In the summer, especially in summer events, I think would tend to limit opportunities to get infected. It's part of the reason flu season isn't in the summer months.

    The influenza virus is a different virus that is more seasonal. The corona virus has thrived in tropical climates as well as in colder climates. Not a good comparison.
     
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