Ammo Prices...Seem to be coming down

[airhog]

Federal's 223/556 is now 83 cents per round before tax. 9mm is 54 cents per round, 45 is 68 cents per round.

I've noticed all Federal ammo has been going up on retail sites as well, even the ones who typically have the lowest prices. It's only a matter of time before the big box stores raise their prices unless they just plan on eating the profit loss.

If it's accurate that ammo sales account for a tiny fraction of big box store business, it stands to reason that keeping prices at or near current levels is smart from a marketing perspective. Some of the foot traffic that comparatively lower ammo prices generate probably translates to sales of other merch.

 

[NKBJ]

That's scary. Last time I calculated loading costs .223 was running less than twenty cents.

Nowadays there's great incentive to learn flint knapping.

 

[Ingomike]

People don't act rationally... Therefore econ is not an exact science... Or voodoo art in some cases.

I disagree here. Free markets act rationally, that economists don't understand the people results in voodoo...

 

[daddyusmaximus]

 

[ajeandy]

$21 for 20 rounds of .223 from a place that used to have decent prices

Natchez

www.natchezss.com

 

[Tyler-The-Piker]

 

[cedartop]

Federal just hiked all their prices up on their site federalpremium.com

9mm went from 22.99 a box of 50 to 26.99, .45 $29.99 to $33.99, .357 magnum from $33.99 to $38.99 etc....

Yes. I just heard this morning that they raised their prices 20% across the board to all of those downstream from them.

 

[Ingomike]

I wanted so badly to make this its own thread but we have so many ammo price threads. Let me know if I should do a poll.

When will gun people accept the new price structure for guns and ammo?

I must adapt faster than average, and may have understood the past market differently than others. I never believed fifteen or twenty cent 9mm was the real market. Said again I never believed a manufacturer would set out to build it to sell at that price. I believed it was that price because of other circumstances. Those were a huge build up expecting a HRC win in 2016, the resulting drop off when Trump won, and the need to keep the companies running.

To go from glut prices to shortage prices in a few months is a shock but it all seems logical. Many here keep posting like we will get back to glut prices in the future and those glut prices are what they hold out as "normal". How long will they hold on to the past?

Gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday, gone like a soldier in the civil war, bang bang, gone like a 59 Cadillac, like all the good things ain't never coming back, they gone...

 

[cedartop]

I wanted so badly to make this its own thread but we have so many ammo price threads. Let me know if I should do a poll.

When will gun people accept the new price structure for guns and ammo?

I must adapt faster than average, and may have understood the past market differently than others. I never believed fifteen or twenty cent 9mm was the real market. Said again I never believed a manufacturer would set out to build it to sell at that price. I believed it was that price because of other circumstances. Those were a huge build up expecting a HRC win in 2016, the resulting drop off when Trump won, and the need to keep the companies running.

To go from glut prices to shortage prices in a few months is a shock but it all seems logical. Many here keep posting like we will get back to glut prices in the future and those glut prices are what they hold out as "normal". How long will they hold on to the past?

Gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday, gone like a soldier in the civil war, bang bang, gone like a 59 Cadillac, like all the good things ain't never coming back, they gone...

Highly disagree. We may not get back to 2 year ago prices, but these are not the new norm.

 

[Ingomike]

Highly disagree. We may not get back to 2 year ago prices, but these are not the new norm.

I didn't say current is the new norm, just that what many here imply is norm, for which I made a case that what they believe was norm never was, is not and will not ever be the norm again, there will be a new norm.

 

[Tyler-The-Piker]

Anyone pretending to know exactly what's going to happen to ammo prices in the future is a fool.
it's too hard to predict if they'll go up or down, how much so and when that'll happen.

 

[KLB]

I didn't say current is the new norm, just that what many here imply is norm, for which I made a case that what they believe was norm never was, is not and will not ever be the norm again, there will be a new norm.

Will prices return to exactly what they were? Maybe not, but they will probably be close. It isn't like this is new. After Sandy Hook people were saying the same thing. Supply came back and prices went down to close to what they were before. We're talking pennies per rd different, not 3-4x the price difference.

 

[ajeandy]

I wanted so badly to make this its own thread but we have so many ammo price threads. Let me know if I should do a poll.

When will gun people accept the new price structure for guns and ammo?

I must adapt faster than average, and may have understood the past market differently than others. I never believed fifteen or twenty cent 9mm was the real market. Said again I never believed a manufacturer would set out to build it to sell at that price. I believed it was that price because of other circumstances. Those were a huge build up expecting a HRC win in 2016, the resulting drop off when Trump won, and the need to keep the companies running.

To go from glut prices to shortage prices in a few months is a shock but it all seems logical. Many here keep posting like we will get back to glut prices in the future and those glut prices are what they hold out as "normal". How long will they hold on to the past?

Gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday, gone like a soldier in the civil war, bang bang, gone like a 59 Cadillac, like all the good things ain't never coming back, they gone...

I would venture to say we will 80% never get back to those prices for a few reasons. One of the biggest reasons is that prices have not seen inflation in a very very long time. I'm pretty sure I was getting 9mm 50 round boxes for $10 for the past 10 years discounting last year of course. Honestly I am not sure how the prices haven't gone up at all in the past 10 years but I can almost guarantee they will not be going back down to that level ever again. If the cost of toilet paper is going up it doesn't make sense that ammo would not go up at all over the years as well.

 

[Brian's Surplus]

Will prices return to exactly what they were? Maybe not, but they will probably be close. It isn't like this is new. After Sandy Hook people were saying the same thing. Supply came back and prices went down to close to what they were before. We're talking pennies per rd different, not 3-4x the price difference.

I have a feeling that by the time supply catches up with demand, inflation will cause the "new norm" prices to be close to double what they were 2 years ago. I doubt they will be anywhere close to what they were. Not to mention the fact that some companies are 2.5 YEARS behind on ammo production (and falling farther behind every day). People are still buying ammo at a rate that is quadruple what it was 2 years ago, even with the higher prices. All these people waiting for the price to go back to "normal" are in for a big shock.

Get ready for prices on EVERYTHING to double, not just ammo. My advice would be to not keep a lot of cash. Buy gold, silver, real estate or whatever you can find that will act as a hedge against inflation. Buy guns and ammo if you can find a decent price. Cash will be worthless before long the way they are printing it.

 

[Tombs]

Highly disagree. We may not get back to 2 year ago prices, but these are not the new norm.

The projected window to get past this current shortage is stretching into 3 years now.

After 3 years of these kind of prices, I don't really picture anyone wanting to make less money when the consumer has accepted it as normal.

 

[maxwelhse]

The projected window to get past this current shortage is stretching into 3 years now.

After 3 years of these kind of prices, I don't really picture anyone wanting to make less money when the consumer has accepted it as normal.

I was typing something pretty close to that that while you were posting. Where we differ is that neither of us know what the actual demand is going to be. Who is actually a buyer at these prices? I'm guessing mostly newbs with stimulus checks. I doubt many guys on here are buying cases at near enough to $1/round to not make the difference.

I suspect that, maybe, 10% of the newbs are ever going to burn through the ammo they're buying right now. The rest are going to die owning 2 full boxes, minus what's in the one mag that came with the gun. When the demand settles back out, and the stimulus check money all dries up, and the manufacturers get back to normal stocking levels, we (+10%) will once again be the only buyers. If you're not willing to buy it for $1/round, then they won't be selling it to you for that. The lights are still going to have to stay on in those factories so eventually supply and demand are going to meet and the price will be what it is. Price fixing is probably the least likely thing that is going to happen to ammo prices or they would have done it before. Not like there was never an opportunity.

I fear regulation being a much larger driver of the market. Lead manufacturing regulation, EPA taxes, just regular old we don't like you taxes, etc, whatever. I fear anything that may come down in price can go right back up in fees. It's not an infringement if we just make it monstrously expensive, right? We shall see.

 

[Ingomike]

In my post on gun sales vs. ammo production I discussed that for each new gun sold last year ammo production was a paltry 225 rounds, and of that over 50% was rimfire.

It is unlikely metals will be as low as they were a few years ago.

Therefore I see no way prices return to that "normal" several here wish for...

 

[Ingomike]

Anyone pretending to know exactly what's going to happen to ammo prices in the future is a fool.
it's too hard to predict if they'll go up or down, how much so and when that'll happen.

Yes, very true, but one can look at signs and see where we are headed. I doubt you think gold will be at the $400 norm of the past anytime soon because the signs point in a different direction.

Now when only a few of the regimes favored are allowed to shoot, at regime secured facilities, it may even be cheaper than the past norm...

 

[cedartop]

The projected window to get past this current shortage is stretching into 3 years now.

After 3 years of these kind of prices, I don't really picture anyone wanting to make less money when the consumer has accepted it as normal.

Who knows what else will happen. Given "normal" circumstances this will not be a 3 year shortage. As we know any natural or made up things can happen to drive prices. The riots after the current trial will be a case in point.

 

[Lushamania]

Who knows what else will happen. Given "normal" circumstances this will not be a 3 year shortage. As we know any natural or made up things can happen to drive prices. The riots after the current trial will be a case in point.

People tend to not riot when justice is served, so let's hope justice is served.

With the way the manufacturers seem to be ramping up production and investing in further production equipment, I would have said that we'd reach some semblance of normalization within a year, but then you have things like the Evergreen, which only further causes problems with a supply chain still pinched by the pandemic.