40 vs. 9mm Ballistics

[Joe Williams]

i would love to know the actual percentage of effectiveness with all things equal. i mean is a 9mm 95% of a .40.......or more like 75%. if they are all within 10%......by all means id take the 9 all day long with more ammo

45 ACP Stopping Power

Just hit the drop down menu for your favorite caliber. There are those who dismiss these results, but I think it's foolish to ignore how the rounds have worked in actual shootings. Reckon if some folks want to pin their hope only on Jello, instead of looking at all the data, that's up to them. I prefer to look at all available info.

 

[mk2ja]

I would be interested in seeing the pics of the gelatin with a .44 mag.

There was an episode of Lock n Load with "The Gunny" on History Channel where they did the gelatin tests with several rounds, including the 44mag. I looked, but couldn't find an excerpt from the show online. I guess you'll have to try to catch it on TV!

 

[Expat]

Thanks for that Joe, I had never seen the fancy chart before. I see the 125 grain JHP .357 is still at the top of the heap on one stop shots. I remember that being the case decades ago.

 

[Joe Williams]

Thanks for that Joe, I had never seen the fancy chart before. I see the 125 grain JHP .357 is still at the top of the heap on one stop shots. I remember that being the case decades ago.

Yep. Can't do much better than a 125 grain .357 out of a 4" barrel! Couple other rounds come close percentage wise, but they don't have the decades of experience, and not nearly as many shootings, to back those percentages.

 

[cosermann]

Part of the problem is that Marshall and Sannow do not look at all the data. They cherry pick shootings judgementally, which is why their "statistics" can't be used to make statistical inferences. Furthermore, they will not make their so-called 'data' available for peer review as would be standard practice in an academic research setting.

Don't get me wrong, I think historical performance should be coupled with what we know about how bullets perform (often gleaned by shooting gelatin, goats, deer, or whatever). The engineering needs to be validated. The proof is in the pudding, and all that. Decades of experience do show certain rounds to be pretty effective, 125 gr. .357 is an example. Guess what? It also penetrates 12-18" in gel. Huh. Amazing.

Speer 125 grain Gold Dot hollowpoint
.357 Magnum Ammunition Performance Data

But putting a number on it like "95%" the way M&S do borders on dishonesty statistically speaking.

The Marshall & Sanow "Data" - Statistical Analysis Tells the Ugly Story
Discrepancies in the Marshall & Sanow "Data Base": An Evaluation Over Time
Book Review: Handgun Stopping Power - The Definitive Study
Book Review: Street Stoppers
Too Good to be True, Wishful Thinking?, The Best Defense
Sanow Strikes (Out) Again
“One Shot Stop” Handgun statistics, and why they’re a load of crap Monster Hunter Nation

Personally, it's nice to see convergence between test data and field results. When those two agree, it's a good bet.

 

[Joe Williams]

Part of the problem is that Marshall and Sannow do not look at all the data. They cherry pick shootings judgementally, which is why their "statistics" can't be used to make statistical inferences. Furthermore, they will not make their so-called 'data' available for peer review as would be standard practice in an academic research setting.

Don't get me wrong, I think historical performance should be coupled with what we know about how bullets perform (often gleaned by shooting gelatin, goats, deer, or whatever). The engineering needs to be validated. The proof is in the pudding, and all that.

But putting a number on it like "95%" the way M&S do borders on dishonesty statistically speaking.

The Marshall & Sanow "Data" - Statistical Analysis Tells the Ugly Story
Discrepancies in the Marshall & Sanow "Data Base": An Evaluation Over Time
Book Review: Handgun Stopping Power - The Definitive Study
Book Review: Street Stoppers
Too Good to be True, Wishful Thinking?, The Best Defense
Sanow Strikes (Out) Again
“One Shot Stop” Handgun statistics, and why they’re a load of crap Monster Hunter Nation

I'm more than willing to look at any other database of shootings that is as large, if you know of one. I don't know of anyone who's done similar work.

 

[XtremeVel]

I always recommend 9mm to newer shooters. It's a fine round that is plentiful and softer to shoot. The choice of amm types is endless also. Heavier 9mm guns make awesome first guns.

Carry what you want. Personally, I don't like the 40 round, but I love the 45, 9mm, and 357 sig.

Wonder why the preferences of 9mm, .357, and .45 ? I ask because I also feel exactly the same. If I try to put a finger on why, only thing I would come up with would be is because of all the Remington UMC brass in .40 that I have split from case mouth to the web after just 1 reloading. Also, seeing how bad some cases bulge doesn't help either. The combination of the high pressure round ( .40 ) and the thin case walls does a number to my trigger control ! Actually, even though the .357 round is just as high pressure, I have never had any issues with the brass holding up after SEVERAL loadings.

Issues with trigger control doesn't = accuracy... And IMO, lack of accuracy = lack of confidence. I have more confidence in the other calibers mentioned than the .40. I say this being a reloader who uses brass multiple times. If I shot all factory, my opinion could very well be different.

 

[Joe Williams]

Oh, and I do agree that the gelatin testing is part of the data we should be looking at. I do believe the "one shot stop" numbers are part of what was used to develope the criteria for acceptable performance in a bullet. Gelatin offers one very important thing that anecdotal evidence (which is what I think the M&S numbers really are, but they've got a lot of it) simply cannot. It offers a repeatable, consistent medium in which to test bullets, and they've gotten to the point where the testing can offer a fairly reliable predictor of acceptable or un-acceptable performance, IMHO.

 

[jimbo-indy]

I think the site: Box O Truth has links to gel tests with many popular calibers in addition to just shooting various objects. My favorite gel test was the 12 ga. It nearly distroyed. The test set up. Sorry I don't have more info, limited by my Blackberry.

 

[cosermann]

Look at the M&S data for all the 9mm, 40, 45, and 357 mag/sig loads. With the exception of a few loads, they're almost all over 80%. So, does it tells us anything we didn't already sort of know?

For all the work they put into it, I wish they would have had someone helping with the methodology/statistical end of things so we'd all end up with results that were more useful.

 

[U.S. Patriot]

Thanks for that Joe, I had never seen the fancy chart before. I see the 125 grain JHP .357 is still at the top of the heap on one stop shots. I remember that being the case decades ago.

No guarantee of a one shot stop, even with a .357!

 

[jmiller676]

You are new, so I'll give you a break. The search function is your friend. This has been discussed, and beatin to death.

Someone stole my pic...

I just wanted to point out that there is a picture of a thermonuclear mushroom cloud superimposed over the middle of the .45's channel. You can see the demarcation line, though, so you can still see what the real one looks like. It looks like it's only a little larger than the .40's. But hey, every difference counts.

It's all for fun, I mainly carry 9mm.

Hey!!! Why'd you photoshop out the mushroom cloud?

They're jealous they didn't think of it first!

And to the OP...carry what you're accurate with, they all have there place in a defense situation.