Ammo Prices...Seem to be coming down

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  • Magyars

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    Mar 6, 2010
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    Another possibility is that prices will drop to pre-covid levels plus some adjustment for inflation/elevated material cost. The reason being when expectations are that prices will go up, there is a tendency to buy before they go up. That's the trajectory we've been on in recent months.

    Conversely, when expectation is that prices will go down then the tendency is to wait until prices further drop. These self-reinforcing factors lead to peaks and valleys which we have seen historically for ammo prices. It would be odd if something were fundamentally different this time around. Then again we live in very odd times.
    I'm gonna disagree with your assessment friend.
    If my take on human nature is correct ( think TP, cleaning supplies, etc)
    And the theory of supply and demand is correct
    and the CCP keep buying everything they can lay their hands on...
    We're in an ammo drought for months ( if not years ) to come
     

    Chance

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    Another possibility is that prices will drop to pre-covid levels plus some adjustment for inflation/elevated material cost. The reason being when expectations are that prices will go up, there is a tendency to buy before they go up. That's the trajectory we've been on in recent months.

    Conversely, when expectation is that prices will go down then the tendency is to wait until prices further drop. These self-reinforcing factors lead to peaks and valleys which we have seen historically for ammo prices. It would be odd if something were fundamentally different this time around. Then again we live in very odd times.
    What is different this time around is that the politicians are openly anti Second Amendment and are not even trying to hide it. This is new. Just let a couple of EOs affecting anything with firearms hit and see what happens. With the current civil unrest and political theater the fuse is extremely short on panic buying.
     

    Ark

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    I think this is going to go on for years and years, if not be permanent. It's been 14 months and nothing has gotten better. The dam is breaking on hyperinflation. Raw materials costs keep climbing to the moon. Everything that comes in stock continues to blink out of stock immediately, at any price. The clown show running this country continues to make everything worse and drive up demand.

    I don't see anything getting better.
     

    Brimaster

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    Sep 24, 2010
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    Lake County / Eagle
    I do most of my ammo buying online and have for quite awhile.
    I was at one of the online sellers I have not been to in sometime and was looking at my previous orders and this just made me shake my head. In Nov 2010 ordered some 45 ACP 230gr. TMJ 50 rd/box that was 16.95 and in May 2021 the exact same ammo is listed for 52.95 .

    I don’t think it will ever be the same like it was moving forward and will have to see what shakes out with all the stuff that is in process from Washington. I think it will be a roller-coaster ride for awhile.
     

    Cameramonkey

    www.thechosen.tv
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    35   0   0
    May 12, 2013
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    I think this is going to go on for years and years, if not be permanent. It's been 14 months and nothing has gotten better. The dam is breaking on hyperinflation. Raw materials costs keep climbing to the moon. Everything that comes in stock continues to blink out of stock immediately, at any price. The clown show running this country continues to make everything worse and drive up demand.

    I don't see anything getting better.
    This. And when you are as rich and connected as these clowns are, who cares if prices go up? Its gonna cost him another $20,000 to build the house due to lumber prices? Who cares? He'll just pay it or only put the smaller ("normal") quad burner IR natural gas grill into the outdoor entertainment stonework instead of two. Or when the grocery bill goes *UP* by $500/mo he just wont give the hired help a raise.
     

    SheepDog4Life

    Natural Gray Man
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    Sister just called from Evansville Academy... $34/100 rnd WWB 9 mm.

    She got there 1/2 hr AFTER they opened, so the line was cleared out, just walked up to the service desk and they had stacks.

    A couple weeks ago I did the same on the way to Lowe's, stopped by Academy 20 minutes after open... that was $17.50 Rem G&W box, walked right up... and they had a couple dozen more boxes stacked.

    Looks like 34-35 cpr is the new normal retail for 50/100 rnd boxes... and it's not selling out to the first 10 in line, lol!
     

    ajeandy

    Master
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    43   0   0
    Oct 25, 2013
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    S. Indianapolis
    Sister just called from Evansville Academy... $34/100 rnd WWB 9 mm.

    She got there 1/2 hr AFTER they opened, so the line was cleared out, just walked up to the service desk and they had stacks.

    A couple weeks ago I did the same on the way to Lowe's, stopped by Academy 20 minutes after open... that was $17.50 Rem G&W box, walked right up... and they had a couple dozen more boxes stacked.

    Looks like 34-35 cpr is the new normal retail for 50/100 rnd boxes... and it's not selling out to the first 10 in line, lol!
    I'd say you got extremely lucky / don't have many people in your area. Not sure where you're located, but since you said academy it does't sound like you are anywhere near Indianapolis. Finding 9mm at that price is considered an amazing deal right now. If you can find it at all, it's 50 cents per round or higher here.
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    I'd say you got extremely lucky / don't have many people in your area. Not sure where you're located, but since you said academy it does't sound like you are anywhere near Indianapolis. Finding 9mm at that price is considered an amazing deal right now. If you can find it at all, it's 50 cents per round or higher here.
    Absolutely!

    But it is getting better... I texted a retired buddy and he got there at 10:30 and picked up his two boxes... and those weren't the last two.

    Sister also got me two boxes of these, which have been unobtainium forever, for $23.99 each, two weeks ago at RK. So, I'd say while we are still well within the "tunnel", there are glimmers of light ahead.

    6ED9FD9A-585F-4532-B168-7C0515E3E3C2.jpeg

    And, yes, sis' will get a nice present for her bday this year, lol!
     

    Ingomike

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    6   0   0
    May 26, 2018
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    Could be. I just think there is excess volume that will hit the flood gates once the "let's keep prices high" wall cracks. In the long run market forces will prevail. Price gouging is not illegal but not sustainable in the long run.

    So right now there is "price gouging" but when the "market forces" "prevail" "flood gates" of "excess volume" will appear. All will be good when the "let's keep prices high wall cracks".

    That is not how any of this works!

    You are saying there is ammo that is available but they are holding it in one of the hottest markets ever waiting to sell it when the market cools.
     
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    Reloading supplys are definitely comming back. Well execpt primers. Lol
    When I can order a brick of primers for under a hundred bucks anytime I want....then its over
     

    Ingomike

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    Another possibility is that prices will drop to pre-covid levels plus some adjustment for inflation/elevated material cost. The reason being when expectations are that prices will go up, there is a tendency to buy before they go up. That's the trajectory we've been on in recent months.

    Conversely, when expectation is that prices will go down then the tendency is to wait until prices further drop. These self-reinforcing factors lead to peaks and valleys which we have seen historically for ammo prices. It would be odd if something were fundamentally different this time around. Then again we live in very odd times.

    This is completely wrong. The thinking that "pre-covid" prices were normal market is where the disconnect begins. It was not! We were enjoying the excess production manufactured in anticipation of HRC winning in 16. Covid and riots came along and flipped the market.
     

    Ingomike

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    Sister just called from Evansville Academy... $34/100 rnd WWB 9 mm.

    She got there 1/2 hr AFTER they opened, so the line was cleared out, just walked up to the service desk and they had stacks.

    A couple weeks ago I did the same on the way to Lowe's, stopped by Academy 20 minutes after open... that was $17.50 Rem G&W box, walked right up... and they had a couple dozen more boxes stacked.

    Looks like 34-35 cpr is the new normal retail for 50/100 rnd boxes... and it's not selling out to the first 10 in line, lol!

    It is great you got something you were happy with but that is the stop. Extrapolating "new normal retail" from ones own anecdotal experience is not indicative of the market.

    We recently learned here from good sources that the reason that you do occasionally find a great deal at the big corporate stores like Academy or RK is they are still receiving inventory occasionally at a contract price agreed to before the market conditions changed and that many of those contracts are ending soon.

    It is good that it was available but that anomaly could have just been because the local flipper was sick and didn't make it in. LOL
     

    airhog

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    Feb 6, 2021
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    So right now there is "price gouging" but when the "market forces" "prevail" "flood gates" of "excess volume" will appear. All will be good when the "let's keep prices high wall cracks".

    That is not how any of this works!

    You are saying there is ammo that is available but they are holding it in one of the hottest markets ever waiting to sell it when the market cools.

    That is usually how it works. When the oil cartel was in full swing artificially limiting supplies made oil producing countries rich. Once the wall cracked, market forces normalized supply and demand.

    Many online sites indicate their inventory volume. They could obviously sell more if they lowered prices. However, revenue is price times volume. Some of this difficult math is going to make heads explode but

    5 x 10 = 10 x 5 = 50

    Only an idiot would sell 10 units at $5 when he can sell 5 units at $10 and keep 5 units for the future. Price gougers are many things but they are not idiots.
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    May 14, 2016
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    It is great you got something you were happy with but that is the stop. Extrapolating "new normal retail" from ones own anecdotal experience is not indicative of the market.

    We recently learned here from good sources that the reason that you do occasionally find a great deal at the big corporate stores like Academy or RK is they are still receiving inventory occasionally at a contract price agreed to before the market conditions changed and that many of those contracts are ending soon.

    It is good that it was available but that anomaly could have just been because the local flipper was sick and didn't make it in. LOL
    I was jobless over the winter... during that time, Academy would "occasionally", maybe once a week, get a couple dozen boxes of (brass) 9 mm, and sell it for $11.99 - $12.49 per box of 50 (24-25 cpr) IF you were there an hour before the doors opened. Meanwhile, online/GB ammo was going for 80-100 cpr... and selling out.

    Now, you don't have to wait in line, but you do need to be there in the morning, to get 34-35 cpr brass 9 mm, and can find 60 cpr online, often one of my preferred brands/wieights. Anything over 62-63 cpr on GB gets zero bids (CCI Blazer brass).


    It is getting better and the prices are coming down from the panic highs.
     

    Ingomike

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    That is usually how it works. When the oil cartel was in full swing artificially limiting supplies made oil producing countries rich. Once the wall cracked, market forces normalized supply and demand.

    Many online sites indicate their inventory volume. They could obviously sell more if they lowered prices. However, revenue is price times volume. Some of this difficult math is going to make heads explode but

    5 x 10 = 10 x 5 = 50

    Only an idiot would sell 10 units at $5 when he can sell 5 units at $10 and keep 5 units for the future. Price gougers are many things but they are not idiots.

    Trying to figure out how an oil embargo applies to the current ammo market? If the ammo was there they would be selling it a max prices we have ever seen. I guarantee they don't have that deep of inventory.
     

    Ingomike

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    I was jobless over the winter... during that time, Academy would "occasionally", maybe once a week, get a couple dozen boxes of (brass) 9 mm, and sell it for $11.99 - $12.49 per box of 50 (24-25 cpr) IF you were there an hour before the doors opened. Meanwhile, online/GB ammo was going for 80-100 cpr... and selling out.

    Now, you don't have to wait in line, but you do need to be there in the morning, to get 34-35 cpr brass 9 mm, and can find 60 cpr online, often one of my preferred brands/wieights. Anything over 62-63 cpr on GB gets zero bids (CCI Blazer brass).


    It is getting better and the prices are coming down from the panic highs.
    Did you not see the point that most low price ammo is from delivery from old contracts that will soon expire. Then the big retailers will be at near gun store prices. The prices at Academy or RK are not indicative of the prices falling to $.35...
     

    Ark

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    This is completely wrong. The thinking that "pre-covid" prices were normal market is where the disconnect begins. It was not! We were enjoying the excess production manufactured in anticipation of HRC winning in 16. Covid and riots came along and flipped the market.
    Yup. They're not making that mistake again. Better to keep production flat and allow prices to skyrocket to, eventually, control demand. They're not going to bulk up ahead of elections again, not when they can just sell the same round at a 400% margin.
     

    SheepDog4Life

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    Did you not see the point that most low price ammo is from delivery from old contracts that will soon expire. Then the big retailers will be at near gun store prices. The prices at Academy or RK are not indicative of the prices falling to $.35...
    The retail price didn't "fall to" 35 cpr. It increased from 25 cpr to 35 cpr, a 40% increase, and while not sitting on the shelves all day long, is way more available than it was 3-6 months ago at the retail price.

    If your asking me to believe that the LGS (and online) price increases of 200% (triple the old price) are the new normal, and aren't astronomical/gouging mark-ups, then color me skeptical.
     
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    ajeandy

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    The retail price didn't "fall to" 35 cpr. It increased from 25 cpr to 35 cpr, a 40% increase, and while not sitting on the shelves all day long, is way more available than it was 3-6 months ago at the retail price.

    If your asking me to believe that the LGS (and online) price increases of 200% (triple the old price) are the new normal, and aren't astronomical/gouging mark-ups, then color me skeptical.
    I spoke with my local ffl yesterday (in-home ffl) and he hasn't been able to get hardly any ammo since the shortage. He just got some recently and his cost from the wholesaler was $16/box (50) Fiocchi 9mm so 32 cents per round. Meanwhile I watch the prices go up daily on sites like Natchez
     
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