2021 shortages

The #1 community for Gun Owners in Indiana

Member Benefits:

  • Fewer Ads!
  • Discuss all aspects of firearm ownership
  • Discuss anti-gun legislation
  • Buy, sell, and trade in the classified section
  • Chat with Local gun shops, ranges, trainers & other businesses
  • Discover free outdoor shooting areas
  • View up to date on firearm-related events
  • Share photos & video with other members
  • ...and so much more!
  • ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    Reading through this thread, both sides make sensible points. The question is, is this anything?
    If you were to bet towards more recent history of this country, the people screaming the sky is falling have always lost because the the sky has never fallen.
    If you were to place your bet with longer term history (beginning of recorded), it may very well be something, as the life of a republic is roughly max 250 years. So this could be something.
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    There's much graver threats to the US than short term shortages and a tight labor market. Neither is new. Even if we believe the 250 years thing, which sounds pretty made up whole cloth but ok, that's a meaningless metric as we aren't some average of all republics from recorded time (nor does the concept of a republic extend back nearly that far, another reason I'm suspect of any such number being based in reality) what has caused collapse in Agrarian Age Eurasia is often a non-issue in information age America. Our threats are either global catastrophe that sinks all ships or Balkanization due to hyperpolitical divisions and misinformation campaigns.
     
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jul 7, 2021
    2,626
    113
    central indiana
    Why rhetorical? The answers exist.

    What if there's more forklift jobs today than there were yesterday?

    Per the Labor Department:
    August 2021: Transportation and warehousing added 53,000 jobs

    1. "So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August,
    notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and
    warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail
    trade declined over the month."

    2. We're at similar unemployment numbers as we were this time 6 years ago, and less than we were 7 and 8 years ago so we're not still in a historically high unemployment situation. Labor Participation Rate is about 1-2% lower than it was in the same time periods, but some of that is due to an aging population meaning more people are retired. It also counts everyone over 16, and the teenager demographic is one of the highest unemployed and not seeking employment groups as they are in school, working under the table, etc. There's also still a fairly high number of people on temporary layoff with a call back date, which I *think* is mostly likely due to manufacturing idling waiting for components.

    3. So we've got fewer people in the labor pool because the Labor Participation Rate is down. That can mean people retired, became disabled, left the country, died, etc. They aren't working and aren't looking to, and while it's a small percentage across the broader market it adds up. Then jobs have largely recovered in many sectors. Pay has improved in some sectors and not others, and if the barrier to entry is low a lot of folks will make that transition. It's not like "learn to code" where the people out of work are untrained or unsuited for the new jobs without extensive (and expensive) education.

    4. I'm going to guess when the numbers are out, retirements are up as well. The status quo was challenged and that got a lot of folks thinking about priorities and if they wanted to keep working or not, some who could financially swing it did it earlier then they otherwise would have. A smoking hot market and all time high real estate prices helps make that easier, as well.
    1. Shuttering a business, per gov edicts, then reopening isn't "growth". Unless you're the gov.
    2. Most of this paragraph disputes the data in item 1. Though I suspect companies with employees furloughed/ laid off pending return wouldn't display help wanted signs.
    3. Doesn't the lack of participation go to my point; the oddity of everybody, everywhere all at once?
    4. I agree with you. Guessing is all any of us are doing. But my guess is as good as yours. And my guess is that this "shortage" isn't natural.
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    1. Shuttering a business, per gov edicts, then reopening isn't "growth". Unless you're the gov.
    2. Most of this paragraph disputes the data in item 1. Though I suspect companies with employees furloughed/ laid off pending return wouldn't display help wanted signs.
    3. Doesn't the lack of participation go to my point; the oddity of everybody, everywhere all at once?
    4. I agree with you. Guessing is all any of us are doing. But my guess is as good as yours. And my guess is that this "shortage" isn't natural.

    1) Monthly growth or loss is exactly that, monthly. The article plainly states longer term trends as well. Hence why I said "in many sectors" and not "across the economy". "Essential workers" were not shuttered nor did they suffer the job loss that retail/hospitality/travel sectors did. So if you want to know where forklift drivers went you need to look at warehousing and transport jobs because that's the relevant sector. That sector was already squeezed pre-pandemic. Warehousing and transportation grew by over 1.5 million jobs in the decade pre-pandemic, job openings and attempts to hire were very high in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and turnover in the industry is pretty significant in the most "normal" of times. They don't suddenly need people now, you (and the media) are just now paying attention. Read the JOLTS reports for years preceding the pandemic for more detail.

    2) See above.

    3) There is no "Everybody". The percentages economy wide are small and not outside historic norms. Certain industries got hit much harder than others, but those industries are highly visible. Retail/hospitality being one.

    4) If our opinions are equal you should be able to advance a coherent theory and show evidence vs "it just feels..."
     
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jul 7, 2021
    2,626
    113
    central indiana
    1) Monthly growth or loss is exactly that, monthly. The article plainly states longer term trends as well. Hence why I said "in many sectors" and not "across the economy". "Essential workers" were not shuttered nor did they suffer the job loss that retail/hospitality/travel sectors did. So if you want to know where forklift drivers went you need to look at warehousing and transport jobs because that's the relevant sector. That sector was already squeezed pre-pandemic. Warehousing and transportation grew by over 1.5 million jobs in the decade pre-pandemic, job openings and attempts to hire were very high in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and turnover in the industry is pretty significant in the most "normal" of times. They don't suddenly need people now, you (and the media) are just now paying attention. Read the JOLTS reports for years preceding the pandemic for more detail.

    2) See above.

    3) There is no "Everybody". The percentages economy wide are small and not outside historic norms. Certain industries got hit much harder than others, but those industries are highly visible. Retail/hospitality being one.

    4) If our opinions are equal you should be able to advance a coherent theory and show evidence vs "it just feels..."
    You didn't link to an article. Thus I cannot read the article "that plainly states".
    You seem hyperfocused.
    Looking through a periscope isn't the same as coming to the surface.
     

    ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    There's much graver threats to the US than short term shortages and a tight labor market. Neither is new. Even if we believe the 250 years thing, which sounds pretty made up whole cloth but ok, that's a meaningless metric as we aren't some average of all republics from recorded time (nor does the concept of a republic extend back nearly that far, another reason I'm suspect of any such number being based in reality) what has caused collapse in Agrarian Age Eurasia is often a non-issue in information age America. Our threats are either global catastrophe that sinks all ships or Balkanization due to hyperpolitical divisions and misinformation campaigns.
    I may have the wrong word - republic - maybe it’s empire, maybe it’s democracy (doubtful) but that’s a pretty well researched known number, I’ll get some links when I get rained out….
     

    operator103

    Plinker
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Sep 22, 2021
    14
    13
    Logansport
    The shortage things seems weird. I get shutdowns stop production, unemployment bene's slow the return to work. But it's been 18 months. The believers are masked, vaxxed, saluting the science and back at work. The skeptical never stopped hanging it out, sticking it where they wanted and never stopped work if they weren't made to stop. Shortages everywhere? On everything? All at once? Again, I don't discount shutdowns and the corresponding delays in ramping up. But absolutely everywhere on everything all at the same time?? Aluminum is big business. Who supplies the U.S.? Meat(s)? Cinder blocks? No conspiracy theories offered here. Just a sincere wonder that all things are short-supplied all at once. Weird.
    Well put and China has the goods, cement and steel, Brazilian beef, cow farts in US are more dangerous than in Brazil I guess.
     

    Brad69

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jul 16, 2016
    5,104
    77
    Perry county
    On the Trucking side

    Tires are in very short stock. Some of the big manufacturers are not making the cheap line of tires. Goodyear is not producing Kelly Springfield because of a rubber shortage. Also some sizes are hard to find.

    Filters are in short supply oil,fuel,air.

    Spare parts sensors and electronic stuff trucks are down for weeks over a $50 sensor.

    New trucks are hard to get so the big fleets are keeping trucks longer which means they need more parts.

    Drivers are hard to find. When you combine a background check and a hair follicle drug test.
    Who do you have left?

    Fuel I put in $629.72 a few minutes ago. The fuel surcharges will kick in soon and we all will pay more for everything.
     

    ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    I may have the wrong word - republic - maybe it’s empire, maybe it’s democracy (doubtful) but that’s a pretty well researched known number, I’ll get some links when I get rained out….
    Summary of research from 1787, used to compare the Gore/Bush race.

    From 2010, pretty good description of where we’ve been, what we’ve seen. ‘If you want to see it’.

    The mother load.
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    You didn't link to an article. Thus I cannot read the article "that plainly states".
    You seem hyperfocused.
    Looking through a periscope isn't the same as coming to the surface.

    I told you what to look for, or anyone else who's interested. The JOLTS report isn't an article, its data. Google will find it for you. If you need articles you need to be spoonfed. Go to the source and see the underlying data yourself, it's not difficult but it is time consuming. If you're actually interested in underlying causes don't be intellectually lazy and look in to it for yourself. If you just want to have opinions regardless of facts or just want what the media spoon feeds you, carry on.
     

    ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    I told you what to look for, or anyone else who's interested. The JOLTS report isn't an article, its data. Google will find it for you. If you need articles you need to be spoonfed. Go to the source and see the underlying data yourself, it's not difficult but it is time consuming. If you're actually interested in underlying causes don't be intellectually lazy and look in to it for yourself. If you just want to have opinions regardless of facts or just want what the media spoon feeds you, carry on.
    Posting this link again, because I’m vain maybe, but really because it is an intellectual work, a good tough read, and educational.

    I think changing your view about how long an empire may last is relevant to your outlook on current events. I’m happy for your optimism and what not, and I hope you’re right, but there is reason to be wary of confirmation bias, and the belief that everything wil.

    If you know something about history and empires, just go to page 4. That should be pretty educational as to the the 250 year question. I am sorely lacking on history, as we had the winningest football coach in the history of mankind ( or some s**t like that) as a history teacher and I never developed an appreciation til later in life.

     

    rooster

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    10   0   0
    Mar 4, 2010
    3,306
    113
    Indianapolis
    The question is, is this anything?
    The energy shortage is the one that’s most concerning. Sure we might not have all the consumer goods we want but you can’t just short the grid.

    well you can kind of, rolling blackouts, but having the grid that stressed brings an increased danger of widespread failures because of strain.

    coal plants aren’t being mothballed. They are being demo’ed. And the ones that were converted to natural gas, recent efforts are being made to make absolutely certain that reconverting back to coal would cost too much/take too long.
     
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Jul 7, 2021
    2,626
    113
    central indiana
    I told you what to look for, or anyone else who's interested. The JOLTS report isn't an article, its data. Google will find it for you. If you need articles you need to be spoonfed. Go to the source and see the underlying data yourself, it's not difficult but it is time consuming. If you're actually interested in underlying causes don't be intellectually lazy and look in to it for yourself. If you just want to have opinions regardless of facts or just want what the media spoon feeds you, carry on.
    Have you ever looked at the definition of hubris? Before you answer, please look up the definition of rhetorical question.
    Beyond that, please accept my most humble apology for having the audacity to express an opinion that differs from your own. Clearly your omniscience and superiority at seeing patterns where others only see chaos is unique. Please use your powers for good.
     

    Route 45

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    92   0   0
    Dec 5, 2015
    14,884
    113
    Indy
    Have you ever looked at the definition of hubris? Before you answer, please look up the definition of rhetorical question.
    Beyond that, please accept my most humble apology for having the audacity to express an opinion that differs from your own. Clearly your omniscience and superiority at seeing patterns where others only see chaos is unique. Please use your powers for good.
    Darth.PNG
     

    jsharmon7

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    119   0   0
    Nov 24, 2008
    7,821
    113
    Freedonia
    I think the key takeaway for this year has been to just relax. Keep a supply of necessities just to err on the side of caution, but the sky still hasn’t fallen. At the beginning of 2020 we were hearing about millions dead from the virus, huge supply issues, and other major SHTF concerns. None of that happened to a meaningful extent. For a month or so it was hard to find TP, hand sanitizer, Lysol wipes, etc. I never went hungry, or came anywhere close to worrying about. Even at the height of lockdowns I could walk into Kroger and get 98% of what I wanted.

    So, be smart, but relax. Don’t clean out your savings and max out cards to prepare for life in a bunker. I’ve been hearing “buckle up, something is about to happen” for two years.
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    Have you ever looked at the definition of hubris? Before you answer, please look up the definition of rhetorical question.
    Beyond that, please accept my most humble apology for having the audacity to express an opinion that differs from your own. Clearly your omniscience and superiority at seeing patterns where others only see chaos is unique. Please use your powers for good.

    Everyone's entitled to their own opinion. They aren't entitled to their own facts. This isn't a discussion of an artwork, this is a real question with a real answer. If you aren't willing to look at data that's relevant to figuring out the answers, everyone can see what your opinion is worth.

    Being butthurt and snarky is easier than even bothering to try and do a little research.
     

    ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    Everyone's entitled to their own opinion. They aren't entitled to their own facts. This isn't a discussion of an artwork, this is a real question with a real answer. If you aren't willing to look at data that's relevant to figuring out the answers, everyone can see what your opinion is worth.

    Being butthurt and snarky is easier than even bothering to try and do a little research.
    In this time, two people can be pretty sure they have the facts, and those “facts” can be polar opposite information.
    During the last election cycle I’d watch CNN and Fox and it was amazing watching them reporting on the same situation. Completely different spin, all based on the same “facts”.
    The worlds too big. We have to make some decisions about our sources.
    So, you may think no one can debate your facts, but are they really facts?
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    In this time, two people can be pretty sure they have the facts, and those “facts” can be polar opposite information.
    During the last election cycle I’d watch CNN and Fox and it was amazing watching them reporting on the same situation. Completely different spin, all based on the same “facts”.
    The worlds too big. We have to make some decisions about our sources.
    So, you may think no one can debate your facts, but are they really facts?

    First, I don't think nobody can debate my facts. I think nobody here is bothering to do so on this topic because having opinions with no basis is easier.

    As far as am I sure. I'm not sure you're real. But I would rather take the best information I have and *then* form an opinion then to form an opinion from imagination and magical thinking and then actively avoid learning anything further. It's one thing that made me a really good detective. I really like to know things and I know the difference between a guess, opinion, and theory.
     

    ditcherman

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    22   0   0
    Dec 18, 2018
    7,607
    113
    In the country, hopefully.
    As far as am I sure. I'm not sure you're real.
    Yea, I get that a lot, especially from the ladies.
    First, I don't think nobody can debate my facts. I think nobody here is bothering to do so on this topic because having opinions with no basis is easier.

    As far as am I sure. I'm not sure you're real. But I would rather take the best information I have and *then* form an opinion then to form an opinion from imagination and magical thinking and then actively avoid learning anything further. It's one thing that made me a really good detective. I really like to know things and I know the difference between a guess, opinion, and theory.
    No doubt there are a lot of opinions being flouted as fact. It’s annoying. But a sincere, educated, smart person can also have beliefs that he thinks are just as much fact as you think yours are.
    Walter Cronkite et al. is dead.
    We are playing into their game of divide and conquer.
    Forgive me though, you don’t believe in the ‘they’.
     

    BehindBlueI's

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    29   0   0
    Oct 3, 2012
    25,890
    113
    Yea, I get that a lot, especially from the ladies.

    No doubt there are a lot of opinions being flouted as fact. It’s annoying. But a sincere, educated, smart person can also have beliefs that he thinks are just as much fact as you think yours are.
    Walter Cronkite et al. is dead.
    We are playing into their game of divide and conquer.
    Forgive me though, you don’t believe in the ‘they’.

    Yet nobody is offering counter-facts. Nobody has bothered to look at the relevant reports, job numbers, etc and try to counter my arguments. If you believe in the illuminati and some long game I suppose you could say historical labor stats for years and decades is all fraudulent to lead us to today, but that's kind of magical thinking without some sort of evidence.

    "It doesn't make sense to me" is not evidence or a fact. X number of jobs open is a fact. My theory is based on underlying facts. Nobody has bothered to give a reason they are not credible. You can be smart and sincere but you can't be educated if you don't look at the underlying data and evaluate it in light of your own theory.

    You wouldn't try to diagnose a problem with a machine the way many of you are trying to diagnose a problem with the labor market. Your car won't start. Do you just go buy a starter? Do you equally consider the guy who says it's probably the brake lines are rusted? No. You may have a theory it's the starter, but you'll gather data before locking in on that notion. The starter is a better theory in that it fits the no start more than brake lines do, but that doesn't mean it's correct. But then you test the battery and it's fine, etc. etc.

    So if you want an educated opinion educate yourself.
     
    Top Bottom